Talk page for the Complexity Project: Difference between revisions
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FAO also has a really neat set of monthly retail and export price data from around the world available here: http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool2/. This would be another way of looking at coupling between geographically seperated regions. Most data sets only go back to about 2002-ish, so we can't look at how it changes over time, but can still look at coupling today. | FAO also has a really neat set of monthly retail and export price data from around the world available here: http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool2/. This would be another way of looking at coupling between geographically seperated regions. Most data sets only go back to about 2002-ish, so we can't look at how it changes over time, but can still look at coupling today. | ||
Finally, the USDA has annual grain stock data by year for 1960-2011 that could be used for a 'robustness' measure of different nodes in the network. | Finally, the USDA has annual grain stock data by year for 1960-2011 that could be used for a 'robustness' measure of different nodes in the network. -- Fran | ||
(PS - here is a link to a moderately interesting IFPRI article that looks at the effects of stocks and particularly export bans / panic buying in propagating the 2007-2008 food price shock:http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp00958.pdf | |||
They have a formula relating the impact of sudden demand / supply changes on short-run global prices that might be relevant) | |||
Revision as of 04:08, 24 June 2011
| Complex Systems Summer School 2011 |
This is the page for formulating an answer to the Challenge Question on Complexity.
Refining the question: what are we trying to answer? Time based? Scale? Dynamics?
Conceptualization: what are the concepts to lock in for testing?
Models available for modification:
- NetLogo diffusion models
- Netlogo network models
- Bhavnani Findley Kuklinski (rumors on ethnic conflict)
Assembly of annotated bibliography for data/parameter mining
Crutchfield, Jim (2009). "The Hidden Fragility of Complex Systems: Consequences of Change, Changes of Consequences". http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/09-12-045.pdf -This paper is Jim's rough answer to his own question; we should consider it our ur-text for this project. It is non-technical reading (something like a long op-ed) but sketches out basic definitions of fragility, complexity, and the sorts of problems he sees as needing answers. It also has some references we may want to explore further. MDT
Johnson, Simon. "13 Bankers and the Next Financial Meltdown" (.pdf). http://ineteconomics.org/sites/inet.civicactions.net/files/INETSession8-SimonJohnson_0.pdf - Jim's paper points to the economy as 'complex', and argues this complexity created fragility that led to the recent crisis. Johnson's argument is a bit different: increasing concentration of wealth among a few key financial firms led to regulatory capture and strong homogeneity in that sector. From our perspective, this process reduced the complexity of the financial-political system, and made it prone to failure. MDT
Data Sets Available
I was looking around tonight and found out the FAO has a detailed trade matrix on food commodity flows from 1986-2008. Its a pain to deal with and might take a lot of work to get it in a useable form, but we could definitely use it for a weighted network of the most important grain importers / exporters.
FAO also has a really neat set of monthly retail and export price data from around the world available here: http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool2/. This would be another way of looking at coupling between geographically seperated regions. Most data sets only go back to about 2002-ish, so we can't look at how it changes over time, but can still look at coupling today.
Finally, the USDA has annual grain stock data by year for 1960-2011 that could be used for a 'robustness' measure of different nodes in the network. -- Fran
(PS - here is a link to a moderately interesting IFPRI article that looks at the effects of stocks and particularly export bans / panic buying in propagating the 2007-2008 food price shock:http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp00958.pdf They have a formula relating the impact of sudden demand / supply changes on short-run global prices that might be relevant)