Winning the Oil Endgame

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The United States can eliminate its oil use by the 2040s at an average cost of $15/bbl (2000 $), led by business for profit. Half the oil can be saved by redoubling the efficiency of using it (already doubled since 1975) at an average cost of $12/bbl—chiefly through tripled-efficiency, safer, and uncompromised cars, trucks, and planes. The other half can be displaced by saved natural gas and advanced biofuels (unrelated to the food system) at an average cost of $18/bbl. Implementation does not require new federal taxes, subsidies, mandates, or laws; some innovative public policies would help, but can be implemented administratively or at a state level. On the contrary, implementation is already being led by the private sector, stimulated by "institutional acupuncture."