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{{Limits to Forecasting and Prediction}}
{{Limits to Forecasting and Prediction}}
====Tuesday, October 15====
Held at Morgan Stanley World Headquarters, 41st Floor, 1585 Broadway, New York, NY
{| width="95%"  border="1" cellpadding="4"
|-
|width="15%"  |8:00 am
  |Breakfast and Registration
|-
  |8:45 am
  |'''Welcome and Overview''', [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_L._Leibowitz Martin Leibowitz], Morgan Stanley and [http://www.santafe.edu/about/people/profile/Chris%20Wood Chris Wood], SFI
|-
  |9:00 am
  |'''The Forecasting Frenzy''', [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Kaufman Henry Kaufman], Henry Kaufman & Company
|-
  |10:00 am
  |'''Break'''
|-
  |10:30 am
| |'''Risk Management Version 3.0: Predicting the Potential for Cascades and Contagion''', [http://rick.bookstaber.com/ Rick Bookstaber], Office of Financial Research
|-
|11:30 am
  |'''With Forecasting, Strategic Beats Tactical, and Many Beats Few''', [http://www.rijpm.com/author/antti-ilmanen/391 Antti Ilmanen], AQR Capital
|-
|12:30 pm
|'''Lunch'''
|-
|1:30 pm
|'''The Predictioneer's Game''', [http://politics.as.nyu.edu/object/brucebuenodemesquita Bruce Bueno-Mesquita], New York University
|-
|2:30 pm
|'''Challenges of Forecasting with Fat-Tailed Data''', [http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~aaronc/ Aaron Clauset], University of Colorado and SFI
|-
|3:30 pm
|'''Break'''
|-
|4:00 pm
||'''Geopolitical Forecasting Tournaments Test the Limits of Judgment - and Stretch the Boundaries of Science''', [http://psychology.sas.upenn.edu/node/20543 Philip Tetlock], University of Pennsylvania
|-
|5:00 pm
|'''Adjourn'''
|}

Latest revision as of 19:55, 27 September 2013

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Tuesday, October 15

Held at Morgan Stanley World Headquarters, 41st Floor, 1585 Broadway, New York, NY

8:00 am Breakfast and Registration
8:45 am Welcome and Overview, Martin Leibowitz, Morgan Stanley and Chris Wood, SFI
9:00 am The Forecasting Frenzy, Henry Kaufman, Henry Kaufman & Company
10:00 am Break
10:30 am Risk Management Version 3.0: Predicting the Potential for Cascades and Contagion, Rick Bookstaber, Office of Financial Research
11:30 am With Forecasting, Strategic Beats Tactical, and Many Beats Few, Antti Ilmanen, AQR Capital
12:30 pm Lunch
1:30 pm The Predictioneer's Game, Bruce Bueno-Mesquita, New York University
2:30 pm Challenges of Forecasting with Fat-Tailed Data, Aaron Clauset, University of Colorado and SFI
3:30 pm Break
4:00 pm Geopolitical Forecasting Tournaments Test the Limits of Judgment - and Stretch the Boundaries of Science, Philip Tetlock, University of Pennsylvania
5:00 pm Adjourn
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