Limits to Forecasting and Prediction - Agenda

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Tuesday, October 15

Held at Morgan Stanley World Headquarters, 41st Floor, 1585 Broadway, New York, NY

8:00 am Breakfast and Registration
8:45 am Welcome and Overview, Martin Leibowitz, Morgan Stanley and Chris Wood, SFI
9:00 am The Forecasting Frenzy, Henry Kaufman, Henry Kaufman & Company
10:00 am Break
10:30 am Risk Management Version 3.0: Predicting the Potential for Cascades and Contagion, Rick Bookstaber, Office of Financial Research
11:30 am With Forecasting, Strategic Beats Tactical, and Many Beats Few, Antti Ilmanen, AQR Capital
12:30 pm Lunch
1:30 pm The Predictioneer's Game, Bruce Bueno-Mesquita, New York University
2:30 pm Challenges of Forecasting with Fat-Tailed Data, Aaron Clauset, University of Colorado and SFI
3:30 pm Break
4:00 pm Geopolitical Forecasting Tournaments Test the Limits of Judgment - and Stretch the Boundaries of Science, Philip Tetlock, University of Pennsylvania
5:00 pm Adjourn