Ecological modeling of arrow bamboo:

Using two models (analysis of altitude-abundance patterns and an agent-based model) we demonstrate that global warming is a possible explanation of the declines of arrow bamboos in Mount Shennongjia, west-central China. Under two different scenarios (Temperature increments 1.5° C and 6 °C) both models predict upward shifts of bamboo populations. For the first scenario, the agent-based model also predicts serious reductions of the population of bamboo. For the second scenario the first model predicts serious declines (>%50) whereas extinction of the bamboo are predicted under the second model. Differences between the predicted bamboo populations and the models are due to the agent-based model’s inclusion of bamboo life history traits and competition with other plant species. It is important to monitor the dynamics of arrow bamboo because it is clear that this species is very susceptible to global warming and also because many species of animals subsist entirely on a diet of bamboo and reduction or extinction of this species could lead to extinction of these animals.