Tivnan koehler abs

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The Mathematics of Terrorism August 31-September 2, 2009, Santa Fe NM

Organizers: Aaron Clauset (Santa Fe Institute) and Brian Tivnan (MITRE)

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Brian Tivnan and Matt Koehler


Counterinsurgency (COIN) operations require a flexible and adaptive force to compete against asymmetrical and adaptive adversaries in the struggle to gain the support of the general populace. Given these dynamics of the COIN environment, the analytical and training communities, and ultimately commanders in theater, require analytical tools to assess the potentially far-reaching implications of non-kinetic effects in COIN operations. Current force-on-force combat models have inherent limitations: (a) they do not represent non-kinetic effects critical to COIN operations; and (b) they are predicated on prescribed doctrinal operations and cannot reflect the learning of an asymmetric, adaptive adversary. This research leverages recent advances to model socio-cultural features of operationally relevant situations to create an analytical tool that couples the kinetic and non-kinetic effects of a COIN environment. This capability could be used by the analytical community as an artificial COIN world for experimenting on various dynamics of counterinsurgency operations. Our experiments could enhance understanding of counterinsurgency dynamics and provide insight into the nature of the socio-cultural landscape of the COIN environment.