Complex Systems Summer School 2013-CIB Markov

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Project Description

Currently we are focused on usefully pairing the analytical tools of cross-impact balances (CIB) and Markov chains. One of the possible outputs from CIB is a succession of system states that are self-correcting, until the system arrives at a stable attractor or cyclic attractors. With current CIB software tools, there is not a very good way to visualize or investigate these successions. Markov chains could be useful for this purpose and potentially for doing additional analysis. At this stage, have not yet decided on a research question. We are thinking first about how to build tools that connect these analytical approaches. --Vanessas 02:10, 6 June 2013 (UTC)

Project Notes

Here are some pictures of Scenario Networks for the Somewhereland Example. Shown are the total network, a component with consistent scenario and one with a loop.

Project Progress

To-do list, June 6-9

• Vanessa to upload tutorial slides to wiki
• Stephane and Alastair to look at ScenarioWizard software/code, develop strategy for CIB-Markov tool development
• Vanessa and Hua (and others?) to brainstorm initial simple test cases for tool development