User:NicolaK

Practical Methods for Analysis of Early - Warnings for Regime Shifts

Complex systems ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate may have tipping points where a sudden shift to a contrasting regime can occur. As such critical transitions can have dire consequences, being able to predict them is very important. Unfortunately, detecting critical points is extremely difficult as good predictive models are mostly lacking. However, recent work suggests that we may find empirical indicators to assess whether a system is approaching a tipping point. Such generic early-warning indicators appear to work for all kinds of critical transitions and, in principle, can be identifiable in a wide range of complex systems like ecosystems, financial markets, or the climate.