Climate Science and Economics of Global Climate Change

State of Climate Science

My first lecture will provide an overview of the latest results of climate science. I will start out by putting some of the recently observed climatic extremes into context. Consequently, I will talk about new projections of sea level rise, the decrease in land and sea ice, and some of the often overlooked consequences of ocean acidification. I will also provide an update on tipping elements in the Earth System and present some preliminary research on the possibility of reaching a global tipping point, i.e., triggering a runaway greenhouse effect. Last but not least, some basic scientific facts about climate change will be discussed that highlight the urgency of the problem.

Suggested reading:

Copenhagen Diagnosis Report
PNAS Special Issue on Tipping Elements (PDF)
NASA GISS Website
S. Rahmstorf, Nature 2010 (PDF)
Hoffman & Schellnhuber, PNAS 2009 (PDF)
Loarie et al., Nature 2009 (PDF)

State of Climate Economics and Policy

My second lecture will deal with the economic and political dimensions of climate change. I will discuss the technical and economic feasibility of confining global temperature rise to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Various approaches will be presented, which – if fully implemented – could provide a way to (still) avoid dangerous climate change. These will be contrasted with outcomes of the Copenhagen Conference and the current state of international climate change negotiations.

Suggested reading:
ADAM report (PDF)
WBGU Budget Approach
Wicke et al. 2°C Max (PDF)
Rogelj et al., Nature 2010 (PDF)

Tragic Triumph: Cassandra, Pascal and the IPCC

Climate science has been under a lot of attack recently. In my third lecture, I will revisit the various attempts to discredit climate scientist of the recent past. In particular, I will talk about the repercussions of the CRU E-mails theft and the errors discovered in the last IPCC assessment report. A Part of my lecture will also deal with ideas on reforming the IPCC, recent changes in public opinion about climate change and the dubious role of the media. Finally, drawing on the Cassandra mythos and Pascal’s wager, I argue that the best that climate science can expect is a tragic triumph.

Suggested reading:
Reports on CRU email hacking (UEA University Report, Governmental Report, Muir) [1][2][3]
PBL report on IPCC
Science letter
Schellnhuber Tragic Triumph Climatic Change 2010 (also PDF)