Complex Systems Summer School 2013-CIB Markov

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Project Description

Currently we are focused on usefully pairing the analytical tools of cross-impact balances (CIB) and Markov chains. One of the possible outputs from CIB is a succession of system states that are self-correcting, until the system arrives at a stable attractor or cyclic attractors. With current CIB software tools, there is not a very good way to visualize or investigate these successions. Markov chains could be useful for this purpose and potentially for doing additional analysis. At this stage, have not yet decided on a research question. We are thinking first about how to build tools that connect these analytical approaches. --Vanessas 02:10, 6 June 2013 (UTC)

Project Progress

To-do list, June 16-22

• Test code developed by Stephan & Alastair ("kicking the tires"; all group members to do)
• Consider research questions/results to discuss in presentation (all group members; Vanessa to spearhead)
• Consider visualizations for results (all group members; Hua to spearhead?)
• Consider connections to information theory? (Vanessa and Matteo to spearhead)
• Work on final presentation (slides and paper; all group members to do)

To-do list, June 6-9

• Vanessa to upload tutorial slides to wiki
• Stephane and Alastair to look at ScenarioWizard software/code, develop strategy for CIB-Markov tool development
• Vanessa and Hua (and others?) to brainstorm initial simple test cases for tool development