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Saskia Werners & Martina Donaldson
Saskia Werners & Matina Donaldson


''Abstract:'' There is confusion regarding the notion of “vulnerability” and “adaptive capacity” in the climate change community. Recent research has identified a need for formalisation, which would support accurate communication and the elimination of misunderstandings that result from the use of ambiguous terminology. Moreover, a formal framework is a prerequisite for computational approaches to its assessment.
''Abstract:'' This paper aims to find informative proxies of vulnerability and adaptive capacity by using synergies between information theory and vulnerability science. In particular this paper looks at diversification as a key characteristic of adaptive capacity and means of coping with an uncertain environment. It explores proxies of adaptive capacity and vulnerability in two examples. Adaptive capacity is expressed as a function of the varying environmental conditions a system or actor is subjected to and the actions a system or actor can take. By associating maximum long-term growth rates with a system that is optimally adapted to its environment this paper builds a bridge between information theoretical measures and adaptive capacity. For the explored examples, the adaptive capacity of an actor that diversifies is found to be the relative entropy between the distribution of the environment and a distribution of the actor’s activities.
This paper presents an attempt at extending a formal framework from vulnerability science with measures from information theory. We see vulnerability as a relative concept, in the sense that accurate statements about vulnerability are possible only if one clearly specifies (i) the agent that is vulnerable, (ii) the environment to which it is vulnerable and (iii) the preference criteria to evaluate the outcome of the interaction between the entity and the stimulus.
Adaptive capacity and vulnerability are illustrated using measures from information theory. We relate the resulting framework to a simple case and an agent based model of adaptation. We assess the information required by agents to take full advantage of the theoretical benefits of diversification and bet hedging in a changing environment.  


''Keywords: vulnerability, adaptive capacity, climate change, formalisation, information theory.''
''Keywords: vulnerability, adaptive capacity, climate change, formalisation, diversification, information theory. ''
 
[http://www.santafe.edu/events/workshops/images/6/60/CSSS06_WernersDonaldson_finalSFI.pdf paper]

Latest revision as of 13:22, 28 August 2006

Saskia Werners & Matina Donaldson

Abstract: This paper aims to find informative proxies of vulnerability and adaptive capacity by using synergies between information theory and vulnerability science. In particular this paper looks at diversification as a key characteristic of adaptive capacity and means of coping with an uncertain environment. It explores proxies of adaptive capacity and vulnerability in two examples. Adaptive capacity is expressed as a function of the varying environmental conditions a system or actor is subjected to and the actions a system or actor can take. By associating maximum long-term growth rates with a system that is optimally adapted to its environment this paper builds a bridge between information theoretical measures and adaptive capacity. For the explored examples, the adaptive capacity of an actor that diversifies is found to be the relative entropy between the distribution of the environment and a distribution of the actor’s activities.

Keywords: vulnerability, adaptive capacity, climate change, formalisation, diversification, information theory.

paper

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