CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster - Revision history

Christa: /* A Possible Integrating Outline */

2009-07-22T21:08:27Z

A Possible Integrating Outline

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:08, 22 July 2009
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	Framing question:		Framing question:

	What tools can complexity science offer sustainability?		What tools can complexity science offer sustainability? and what tools can be developed

2009-07-22T20:55:05Z

A Possible Integrating Outline

2009-07-22T20:53:42Z

A Possible Integrating Outline

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:53, 22 July 2009
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	-Technology		-Technology

	-Social inputs to climate change		-Social inputs to climate change

	-mechanisms of impact		-mechanisms of impact

	-anything else?		-anything else?

2009-07-22T20:53:25Z

A possible outline

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:53, 22 July 2009
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	==== A ~~possible outline~~ ====		==== A Possible Integrating Outline ====

			Framing question:

			What tools can complexity science offer sustainability?


			-Technology
			-Social inputs to climate change
			-mechanisms of impact
			-anything else?

2009-07-22T20:48:24Z

Modeling Cluster

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:48, 22 July 2009
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	- need list of ways people have modeled economy and climate interactions in the past (ie proto lit review, covering neoclassical approaches, etc)		- need list of ways people have modeled economy and climate interactions in the past (ie proto lit review, covering neoclassical approaches, etc)


			==== A possible outline ====

2009-07-21T22:19:43Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:19, 21 July 2009
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	- cash for clunkers (buying old cars to get them off the road)		- cash for clunkers (buying old cars to get them off the road)
	--- but what about eg relatively new coal plants in bad site for sequestration that still need to be decommissioned to reach 350 ppm?		--- but what about eg relatively new coal plants in bad site for sequestration that still need to be decommissioned to reach 350 ppm?

			- need list of ways people have modeled economy and climate interactions in the past (ie proto lit review, covering neoclassical approaches, etc)

2009-07-21T22:11:28Z

@@ Line 92: / Line 92: @@
 - in previous changes (industrial revolution, agriculture) arose spontaneously (or did they)
---- "The Prize" (gov'ts fought to create oil industry?)
+--- "The Prize" (gov'ts fought to create oil industry?); however once oil industry got going, it was self reinforcing
 --- but is the transition to post-fossil fuel economy different (because problem is global warming, not running out of fossil fuels, at least not yet)

2009-07-21T21:49:04Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:49, 21 July 2009
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	- validate agent based models using game theory results in simplified situations		- validate agent based models using game theory results in simplified situations

	-		- skepticism about game theory

			- What can be done (or can be expected to be done) with agent based models that could not be done with other modeling approaches?

			--- can it predict a transition path to a new state (eg involving more renewables, etc) that traditional (general equilibrium) economic models don't show

			--- need for self reinforcing shift

			--- a agent-based models simply change one set of assumptions (about set behavior of agents) for other set (have to argue that these assumptions are better in some way)

			- in previous changes (industrial revolution, agriculture) arose spontaneously (or did they)

			--- "The Prize" (gov'ts fought to create oil industry?)

			--- but is the transition to post-fossil fuel economy different (because problem is global warming, not running out of fossil fuels, at least not yet)

2009-07-21T21:30:14Z

@@ Line 66: / Line 66: @@
 - stranded assets (investments made under old regulatory regime become much less valuable under new rules)
-- lock in effects are very imporant; how to get out ("buying out" actors who would otherwise have lots of stranded assets)
+- lock in effects are very imporant; how to get out is hard problem ("buying out" actors who would otherwise have lots of stranded assets)
 - how to make a financial product that acts as a catalyst to reduce economic barriers to change (help overcome lock in?

2009-07-21T21:20:34Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:20, 21 July 2009
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	- scaling approaches to evaluate model realism --> implies data against which models can be evaluated		- scaling approaches to evaluate model realism --> implies data against which models can be evaluated

			- Crude Look at the Whole (CLAW)

			==== Notes on Discussion (21 July 2009) ====

			- normative models vs descriptive models

			- macroeconomists largely ignored financial system; recent collapse in finance led to cascading collapse throughout macroeconomy (Ref: Economist article)

			- importance of getting assumptions right from the beginning; possibility of using agent based models to avoid having to make as many assumptions

			- water rights in Arizona (can't trade them; use or lose); interactions between humans, political system, natural environment

			- can use REEDS model to some extent to figure out how to flip grid to include larger amount of renewables

			- stranded assets (investments made under old regulatory regime become much less valuable under new rules)

			- lock in effects are very imporant; how to get out ("buying out" actors who would otherwise have lots of stranded assets)

			- how to make a financial product that acts as a catalyst to reduce economic barriers to change (help overcome lock in?