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Business Network Theme Week:The Future is Not What it Used to Be - Agenda

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The Future Is Not What It Used To Be

September 14-17, 2009

Events are held at the Santa Fe Institute unless otherwise noted

Monday, September 14

8:15 am Shuttle from La Posada Hotel to SFI / Continental Breakfast at SFI
9:00 am Welcome to the Santa Fe Institute, Chris Wood, Vice President, Administration
9:10 am Overview of Theme Week, Béla Nagy, SFI Postdoctoral Fellow
9:20 am Introduction to the SFI Business Network, Nancy Deutsch, Vice President, Development and Corporate Relations
9:30 am The Role of Trends and Discontinuities in Strategic Foresight, Joseph Coates, Futurist, Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc.
10:30 am Coffee Break
10:45 am Past Forecasts in Hindsight: Is Technological Progress Predictable?, Béla Nagy, SFI Postdoctoral Fellow
11:15 am Opening and demo of the Performance Curve Database at pcdb.santafe.edu
11:30 am Open Discussion / Questions for Morning Speakers
12:00 pm Lunch
1:00 pm Futures Studies Report Card, Peter Bishop, Associate Professor of Strategic Foresight and Coordinator of the Graduate Program in Futures Studies, University of Houston
2:00 pm Lessons from Cultural Evolution, Jordan Greenhall, SFI Trustee and Co-Founder and Chairman of the Board, DivX
3:00 pm Coffee Break
3:30 pm Open Discussion / Questions for Afternoon Speakers
4:45 pm Adjourn
5:00 pm Cocktails and opening of traveling exhibition “Yesterday’s Tomorrows” at SFI
5:30 pm Dinner at SFI
7:00 pm Shuttle to La Posada Hotel

Tuesday, September 15

8:15 am Shuttle from La Posada Hotel to SFI / Continental Breakfast at SFI
9:00 am The Future According to You, Anna Salamon, Researcher, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
10:00 am Coffee Break
10:15 am Energy and IT Technology in 20 Years - A Prediction Based on Current Research Progress, Alfred Hübler, SFI External Professor and Director, Center for Complex Systems Research and Professor, Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
11:15 am Open Discussion / Questions for Morning Speakers
12:00 pm Lunch
1:00 pm Looking Forward by Looking Back: A Paleontologist Looks at the Future, Doug Erwin, SFI External Professor and Senior Scientist and Curator, Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History
2:00 pm Open Discussion / Questions for Afternoon Speaker
3:00 pm Coffee Break
3:30 pm Adjourn / Shuttle to La Posada Hotel
Optional Evening Reception and Lecture
5:30 pm Reception Honoring Murray Gell-Mann’s 80th Birthday at La Posada Hotel
7:00 pm Shuttle from La Posada Hotel to James A. Little Theatre
7:30 pm Lecture I - The Search for the Nature of Matter as part of 2009 Annual Ulam Lecture Series Honoring Murray Gell-Mann's 80th Birthday, Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith, Oxford University, Director General of CERN (1994-98)
9:00 pm Shuttle from James A. Little Theatre to La Posada Hotel

Wednesday, September 16

8:15 am Shuttle from La Posada Hotel to SFI / Continental Breakfast at SFI
9:00 am Engineering Your Risks in a Portfolio of Futures: Tactics and Strategies, Scott Mathews, Associate Technical Fellow, The Boeing Company
10:00 am Coffee Break
10:15 am Shaping Tomorrow Today: New Approaches for Making More Effective Long-Term Decisions, Robert Lempert, Director, RAND's Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition
11:15 am Open Discussion / Questions for Morning Speakers
12:00 pm Lunch
1:00 pm Evo Devo Universe?, John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation and Co-Founder, Evo Devo Universe Community
2:00 pm Open Discussion / Questions for Afternoon Speaker
3:00 pm Coffee Break
3:30 pm Adjourn / Shuttle to La Posada Hotel
Optional Evening Lecture
Guests staying at La Posada Hotel to arrange own transportation with the hotel
7:30 pm Lecture II - The Rise of the Speaking Machine-Human Language Evolution as part of 2009 Annual Ulam Lecture Series Honoring Murray Gell-Mann's 80th Birthday, Mark Pagel, SFI External Professor and Professor, School of Biological Sciences, Reading University

Thursday, September 17

8:15 am Shuttle from La Posada Hotel to SFI / Continental Breakfast at SFI
9:00 am Energy and Climate Change: The Need for Better Prediction, Jessika Trancik, SFI Omidyar Fellow
10:00 am Coffee Break
10:15 am So Many Singularities, So Little Time, Luis Bettencourt, SFI External Professor and Research Scientist, Los Alamos National Laboratory
11:15 am Open Discussion / Questions for Morning Speakers
12:00 pm Lunch
1:00 pm Summary and Open Questions, J. Doyne Farmer, SFI Professor
3:00 pm Coffee Break
3:30 pm Adjourn / Shuttle to La Posada Hotel
Optional Evening Lecture
Guests staying at La Posada Hotel to arrange own transportation with the hotel
7:30 pm Lecture III - Twilight of the Anthropocene: The Fate of Human Society in the Face of Environmental Destruction as part of 2009 Annual Ulam Lecture Series Honoring Murray Gell-Mann's 80th Birthday, Daniel Schrag, SFI External Professor and Professor, Earth and Planetary Sciences, and Director, Center for the Environment, Harvard University



Business Network Strategy Game Session

A "Strategy Game" is a uniquely structured battle of minds between teams representing various players (and/or other third parties) in a market or industry. The objective is to predict third parties’ moves or countermoves and stress-test one’s own plans and strategies in as realistic a setting as possible; and thus, refine your position to be resilient against these most-likely responses.

To be held on Friday, September 18, the goal of this game is to evaluate and develop optimal collaboration strategies between the BNet membership and SFI. We are seeking the participation of a cross-section of BNet and the SFI community to contribute to this highly interactive process that includes team-based analysis, discussion and debate. This activity is being directed by Luciano Oviedo, Systems Analyst, Intel Corporation. He develops processes and technologies related to business, competitive and market analytics.

For more information, please leave any questions/comments at Luciano Oviedo's discussion page.

Events are held at the Santa Fe Institute unless otherwise noted

Friday, September 18

8:00 am Shuttle from La Posada Hotel to SFI / Continental Breakfast at SFI
8:30 am Overview of Process and Topics
8:35 am Break Up Into Teams and Perform Analysis #1 (4-5 Questions)
9:00 am Teams #1-4 Presentations / Debate #1 (15 min each team)
10:00 am Break
10:15 am Overview of a Proposed "Collaboration Strategy"
10:30 am Break up into Teams; Perform Analysis #2 (4-5 questions)
11:15 am Teams #1-2 Presentations / Debate #2 (15 min each)
12:00 pm Lunch
1:00 pm Teams #3-4 Presentations / Debate #2 (15 min each)
1:45 am Wrap-up / Key Learning’s / Next Steps
3:00 pm Adjourn / Tea with SFI community
3:30 pm Shuttle to La Posada Hotel