Santa Fe Institute Events Wiki - User contributions [en]

Joseph Geddes

2009-10-19T21:35:52Z

JBGeddesIII:

<center>[[Image: JoeGeddes.png | 135 px]]</center>

I am a postdoc at the Beckman Institute at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. My research interests center on novel optical materials applied to fundamental problems in optical devices and energy supply. One theme in the work is the optical properties of complex materials---i.e. materials in which many symmetries are broken on length scales comparable to optical wavelengths.

More information is available at my [http://www.jbg3.net web site].

== Research ==

One project aims to analyze the propagation of light through nanostructured materials. These include holographically fabricated photonic crystals and sculptured thin films, two materials that can be used to better match the impedance between semiconductors and air to make solar cells and light emitting diodes more efficient. Whole system optical design can help optimize the overall device efficiency. For example, I have analyzed the optics of photovoltaic systems that combine lens arrays with solar cells on flexible substrates [1]. The flexibility of the substrates allows for the possibility of folding up the module to make a cheap one-axis tracker. Such lens and module designs could reduce the range of incidence angles over which the impedance must be matched.

A second project concerns the design of optical materials with desirable characteristics. A metamaterial is a composite whose properties---i.e., strength, electrical conductivity, piezoelectric coefficients, etc.---are either qualitatively different or quantitatively surpass those of its components. These composites, which have been extant for some time, do not obey the simple volume mixing rules that lie at the heart of much theory on composite materials [2, 3]. As such, they exhibit a form of emergent behavior. My calculations indicate that the intrinsically large nonlinearities of metals could be accessed and increased by fabrication of composites comprising alternating metal and dielectric layers of subwavelength thickness [4]. The effective third-order nonlinear susceptibilities could be orders of magnitude larger than those intrinsic to the metallic component due to a resonance effect, though the enhancement is limited to the direction perpendicular to the layer interfaces.

Another effort is directed at a more fundamental understanding of how to control electrons and phonons in condensed matter. This area has been identified by the Department of Energy as a grand challenge in basic science that must be solved to underpin future energy technology [5]. I helped develop an optical pulse shaping algorithm to coherently excite the vibrational normal modes of a chemical species of interest [6, 7]. This algorithm was originally developed for biological imaging, but I intend to extend its range of applicability to more general problems of coherent control of complex matter. The ultimate goal is to eventually use the knowledge gained to help design such technologies as optical nanoantenna rectifiers or photocatalysts.

== Sustainability ==

Like the notion of complexity itself, the definitions people use for sustainability vary with context. How can the sustainability of global human and ecological systems be measured? To start, it might help to examine ideas from physics and engineering that may shed some light on the larger issue of global sustainability: equilibria (static and dynamic), stability, and self organized criticality. What are necessary and sufficient conditions for a complex physical system to be sustainable, and can any of those conditions be extended to apply in a global context? In particular, how much of an unsustainable system's behavior can be explained by either its inability to react quickly enough (i.e. slow feedback) or by inappropriate reactions (i.e. insufficient or wrong responses)?

Although my primary interest in sustainability concerns energy supply and climate change, I would like to learn about and discuss some other global systems: water, biodiversity, the nitrogen cycle, etc. It would be interesting to identify commonalities and interactions between those systems and those of energy and climate.

At the summer school, I would like to learn how to better place my own materials and optics research into a larger context of technology development. Several recent papers on the dynamics of energy technology development by Santa Fe Institute researchers (e.g. [8]) piqued my interest in this topic. How do the dynamics of change in energy technologies compare to those for other technologies that affect sustainability?

== References ==

[1] J. Yoon, A. J. Baca, S.-I. Park, P. Elvikis, J. B. Geddes III, L. Li, R. H. Kim, J. Xiao, S. Wang, T-H. Kim, M. J. Motala, B. Y. Ahn, E. B. Duoss, J. A. Lewis, R. G. Nuzzo, P. M. Ferreira, Y. Huang, A. Rockett, and J. A. Rogers, "Ultrathin silicon solar microcells for semitransparent, mechanically ﬂexible and microconcentrator module designs," Nature Mater. 7: 907-915 (2008).

[2] A. Lakhtakia, ed., "Selected Papers on Linear Optical Composite Materials," SPIE, Bellingham, WA, USA (1996).

[3] R. M. Walser, Metamaterials: An introduction, in W. Weiglhofer and A. Lakhtakia, eds., "Introduction to Complex Mediums for Optics and Electromagnetics," SPIE, Bellingham, WA, USA (2003).

[4] J. B. Geddes III, E. C. Nelson, and P. V. Braun, "Design of uniaxial metallodielectric metamaterials having large optical nonlinearities," APS March Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA (10-14 Mar. 2008).

[5] Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee, "Directing matter and energy: Five challenges for science and the imagination," U. S. Department of Energy (2007).

[6] D. L. Marks, J. B. Geddes III, and S. A. Boppart, "Molecular identiﬁcation by generating coherence between molecular normal modes using stimulated Raman scattering," Opt. Lett. 34: 1756-1758 (2009).

[7] J. B. Geddes III, D. L. Marks, and S. A. Boppart, "Optical pulse shaping for selective excitation of coherent molecular vibrations by stimulated Raman scattering," Proc. SPIE 7183: 718311 (2009).

[8] J. D. Farmer and J. Trancik, "Dynamics of technological development in the energy sector," The London Accord: 1-24 (2007).

Joseph Geddes

2009-10-02T17:22:54Z

JBGeddesIII:

<center>[[Image: JoeGeddes.png | 135 px]]</center>

I am a postdoc at the Beckman Institute at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. My research interests center on novel optical materials applied to fundamental problems in optical devices and energy supply. One theme in the work is the optical properties of complex materials---i.e. materials in which many symmetries are broken on length scales comparable to optical wavelengths.

More information is available at my [http://www.jbg3.net web site].

== Research ==

One project aims to analyze the propagation of light through nanostructured materials. These include holographically fabricated photonic crystals and sculptured thin films, two materials that can be used to better match the impedance between semiconductors and air to make solar cells and light emitting diodes more efficient. Whole system optical design can help optimize the overall device efficiency. For example, I have analyzed the optics of photovoltaic systems that combine lens arrays with solar cells on flexible substrates [1]. The flexibility of the substrates allows for the possibility of folding up the module to make a cheap one-axis tracker. Such lens and module designs could reduce the range of incidence angles over which the impedance must be matched.

A second project concerns the design of optical materials with desirable characteristics. A metamaterial is a composite whose properties---i.e., strength, electrical conductivity, piezoelectric coefficients, etc.---are either qualitatively different or quantitatively surpass those of its components. These composites, which have been extant for some time, do not obey the simple volume mixing rules that lie at the heart of much theory on composite materials [2, 3]. As such, they exhibit a form of emergent behavior. My calculations indicate that the intrinsically large nonlinearities of metals could be accessed and increased by fabrication of composites comprising alternating metal and dielectric layers of subwavelength thickness [4]. The effective third-order nonlinear susceptibilities could be orders of magnitude larger than those intrinsic to the metallic component due to a resonance effect, though the enhancement is limited to the direction perpendicular to the layer interfaces.

Another effort is directed at a more fundamental understanding of how to control electrons and phonons in condensed matter. This area has been identified by the Department of Energy as a grand challenge in basic science that must be solved to underpin future energy technology [5]. I helped develop an optical pulse shaping algorithm to coherently excite the vibrational normal modes of a chemical species of interest [6, 7]. This algorithm was originally developed for biological imaging, but I intend to extend its range of applicability to more general problems of coherent control of complex matter. The ultimate goal is to eventually use the knowledge gained to help design such technologies as optical nanoantenna rectifiers or photocatalysts.

== Sustainability ==

Like the notion of complexity itself, the definitions people use for sustainability vary with context. How can the sustainability of global human and ecological systems be measured? To start, it might help to examine ideas from physics and engineering that may shed some light on the larger issue of global sustainability: equilibria (static and dynamic), stability, and self organized criticality. What are necessary and sufficient conditions for a complex physical system to be sustainable, and can any of those conditions be extended to apply in a global context? In particular, how much of an unsustainable system's behavior can be explained by either its inability to react quickly enough (i.e. slow feedback) or by inappropriate reactions (i.e. insufficient or wrong responses)?

Although my primary interest in sustainability concerns energy supply and climate change, I would like to learn about and discuss some other global systems: water, biodiversity, the nitrogen cycle, etc. It would be interesting to identify commonalities and interactions between those systems and those of energy and climate.

At the summer school, I would like to learn how to better place my own materials and optics research into a larger context of technology development. Several recent papers on the dynamics of energy technology development by Santa Fe Institute researchers (e.g. [8]) piqued my interest in this topic. How do the dynamics of change in energy technologies compare to those for other technologies that affect sustainability?

== References ==

[1] J. Yoon, A. J. Baca, S.-I. Park, P. Elvikis, J. B. Geddes III, L. Li, R. H. Kim, J. Xiao, S. Wang, T-H. Kim, M. J. Motala, B. Y. Ahn, E. B. Duoss, J. A. Lewis, R. G. Nuzzo, P. M. Ferreira, Y. Huang, A. Rockett, and J. A. Rogers, "Ultrathin silicon solar microcells for semitransparent, mechanically ﬂexible and microconcentrator module designs," Nature Mater. 7: 907-915 (2008).

[2] A. Lakhtakia, ed., "Selected Papers on Linear Optical Composite Materials," SPIE, Bellingham, WA, USA (1996).

[3] R. M. Walser, Metamaterials: An introduction, in W. Weiglhofer and A. Lakhtakia, eds., "Introduction to Complex Mediums for Optics and Electromagnetics," SPIE, Bellingham, WA, USA (2003).

[4] J. B. Geddes III, E. C. Nelson, and P. V. Braun, "Design of uniaxial metallodielectric metamaterials having large optical nonlinearities," APS March Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA (10-14 Mar. 2008).

[5] Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee, "Directing matter and energy: Five challenges for science and the imagination," U. S. Department of Energy (2007).

[6] D. L. Marks, J. B. Geddes III, and S. A. Boppart, "Molecular identiﬁcation by generating coherence between molecular normal modes using stimulated Raman scattering," Opt. Lett. 34: 1756-1758 (2009).

[7] J. B. Geddes III, D. L. Marks, and S. A. Boppart. Optical pulse shaping for selective excitation of coherent molecular vibrations by stimulated Raman scattering, Proc. SPIE 7183: 718311 (2009).

[8] J. D. Farmer and J. Trancik, "Dynamics of technological development in the energy sector," The London Accord: 1-24 (2007).

Summer School on Global Sustainability-Working Group Wiki Page

2009-07-24T01:09:20Z

JBGeddesIII:

Please refer to the [http://www.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/CSSS_2009_Santa_Fe-Projects_%26_Working_Groups Complex Systems Summer School] groups page to get an idea of self organization and working groups.

=='''Cluster Research Ideas'''==

===Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity, Food and Ag===

1) How can the global food and land-use systems decrease their negative environmental impact and adapt to climate change while mitigating its effects?

2) Expanding and '''standardizing''' measurement, monitoring, and verification of global ecosystem services.

3) How can we sustainably use ocean and freshwater systems (drinking water, fishing, aquaculture, recreation, and biodiversity)?

===Developing World===

4) How to foster innovation/knowledge sharing within the developing world in regards to improving livelihoods & ensuring sustainability? (e.g. Indeigenous Knowledge, solutions appropriate for agricultural lifestyles)?

5) How would technological transfer from developed to developing nations (or vice versa) for climate change adaptation and mitigation actually occur? (e.g. acocuntability, $$, open source software, govt to govt, private to private, incentives for innovation)

6) How do we get to an equitable distribution of responsibility for climate change mitigation & adaptation around the globe? (e.g. emission reduction burdens, adaptation funds, ranking vulnerability)

===Policy/Regulatory Environment===

7) How can complexity science support streamlining development and adoption of technologies and practices?

8) How to effectively translate research into policy, practice and intervention (with diverse collaborators, partnerships, initiatives, etc.)

9) How do we transform policies affecting global sustainability (path dependence, complex adaptive policy, integration, scalability, etc.)

10) What types of policies can promote sustainability and how to meaningfully enforce them? (individual initiatives, systems approaches, international agreements)

===Decision Sciences===

11) How do we understand/how do we change/what are
the rules of the game, especially as applied to:
economic growth theory
agricultural/eco systems
social systems?

12) What drives societal transformation (in terms of values, norms, practices, and livelihoods strategies) & how can complex system science help to productively shed light on those processes?

===Climate Change===

13) How can we better quantify uncertainty when we are in uncharted territory of the climate system (where change is happening faster and involving feedbacks we don't yet understand?

14) How do we develop useful integrated models? Are there feedback mechanisms that we don't understand?

15) How does climate change affect uncertainties and challenges in modeling de-carbonization & the energy system?

===Human Well-Being, Sociology, Advocacy===

16) How can we best change consumption and political behaviors?

17) How can population growth be part of the dialogue?

18) What techniques & strategies from past social movements can be used to initiate and sustain new social movements?

19) How do cultural conceptions of nature influence sustainability? What kind of educational strategies are needed to foster values that facilitate sustainability?

20) How can we anticipate & mitigate resource-based human conflicts?

===Mitigation and Adaptation===

21) What technologies are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

22) What is our vision for a sustainable future?

23) Which low-carbon or carbon neutral technologies or practices are needed, or need to be developed for a sustainable future?

===Complexity===

24) To what degree does heterogeneity facilitate the adoption & spread of sustainable technologies or practices?

25) Are entropy and sustainability opposing or supporting forces? Under what conditions?

26) Can ideas from complexity be used to improve integrated design practices for new technology (and retrofit technology?)

27) What methods can be used and developed to quantify interactions between previously developed models of human, physical, and economic systems?

===Mitigation and Adaptation Continued===

28) How will we address projected phosphorus shortages? (2020-2050)

29) How are adaptation ideas distributed or shared? (Technology/Idea Transfer)

30) Can localization become an adaptive strategy?

31) What technologies or tools are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

===Proposals for Combination===

#2 and 21
#7 and 26 and 4
#12 and 18
#15 and 23 and 6
#8 and 9 and 16
#1 and 3
#1 and 27
#12 16 and 19

===Op-Ed Paragraphs===

====Ecosystem Services====

While the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will have catastrophic consequences if not reversed, when planning for future sustainability, it is imperative to better understand ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. A globally integrated system to measure, monitor, model, verify and communicate the current state of ecosystem services and how they respond to natural and anthropogenic changes is needed. In order to identify patterns and processes that are emergent at various scales, a wide range of data are needed across various spatial and temporal scales. Collecting and analyzing the flows of ecosystem services needs to be used as an input to a broad range of policies to ensure the future availability of these important services. This needs to be coupled to the appropriate distillation of data and trends for consumption by the general public. Systems that humans depend on for the continuous delivery of goods and services relating to food, water, climate and health are highlighted in the proposal as important agenda items for future research relating to ecosystem services and human well-being.

====Modeling and Complexity Science Approaches to Sustainability (With Particular Application to Climate Change)====

Given the urgency of addressing the climate change problem, there is a need for new tools to model and understand the most effective pathways to de-carbonization, and to better quantify uncertainty, non-linear behavior, and feedback-mechanisms that are predicted both in physical climate models and those that incorporate interactions between the human, biological, and physical climate systems. These tools are of further use for other areas of broader sustainability research. The ability to better quantify interactions between previously developed models of human, technological, and economic systems with those of natural earth systems are needed to evaluate environmental impacts. We believe that human-biology-climate interactions are a critical area of climate science modeling, because these feedbacks either mitigate warming or amplify the consequences of warming. Furthermore, such interactions are currently the least understood or directly evaluated. Just as climate models depend on models of emissions, emissions models depend on an underlying model of the collective behavior of humans via a range of different scenarios of human population growth, development, technological change, and trade coupled by a general equilibrium model framework. We raise the question whether the underlying models of human interaction used in the context of energy and climate modeling are useful tools, given that they contain several weaknesses, namely (1) a lack of interaction with the climate system and the Earth's biology, which itself interacts with the climate system (2) ignorance of the presence and interactions of particular actors such as individual firms, utilities, and governments that provide mechanism to the collective behavior (3) an inability to explore how different desired emissions futures might come about, (4) the possibility of fundamental and rapid changes in social attitudes and behaviors. We believe agent-based models, and other models such as cellular automata that could capture human-biology-climate feedbacks, are particularly useful because they capture motivations of individual agents rather than those of collections of agents. Moreover, complex systems analysis allows us to better quantify uncertainty, non-linear behavior, tipping points, and feedback-mechanisms that are not apparent in the current integrated models and have the potential to create extreme environmental impacts.

==Project Groups==
[http://www.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/CSSS_2009_Santa_Fe-Modeling-Cluster Modeling Cluster (Q 13-14-30-27)]

[http://www.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/CSSS_2009_Santa_Fe-Complexity-Science Complexity Approaches (Q 7-24-25-26)]

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-21T22:19:43Z

JBGeddesIII:

== Modeling Cluster ==

Gina La Cerva, Joe Geddes, Regina Clewlow, Ha Nguyen, Christa Brelsford, Adam Wolf

==== Motivating Questions ====

13) How can we better quantify uncertainty when we are in uncharted territory of the climate system (where change is happening faster and involving feedbacks we don't yet understand?

14) How do we develop useful integrated models? Are there feedback mechanisms that we don't understand?

27) What methods can be used and developed to quantify interactions between previously developed models of human, physical, and economic systems?

(I think this following question should be taken up by the ecosystem services group:)

31) What technologies or tools are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

==== Overall Objectives for Modeling ====

We agree that human-climate interactions are the most critical area of climate science modeling, because these have feedbacks which can either mitigate warming or amplify the consequences of warming. Furthermore these interactions are largely unexplored in a coupled system where feedbacks can be directly evaluated.

Several key human-climate interactions:

+ market dynamics that can lead to decarbonized energy technology implementation. tipping points. policy. investment.

- human migration

- increased energy use in adaptation, e.g. use of air conditioning

- infectious disease

==== Modeling Objectives ====

Several uses for models were identified, including

- policy evaluation (sensitivity analysis)

- validation

- forecasting and uncertainty analysis

==== Types of Models ====

- agent based modeling of markets, investment, policy

- agent based modeling of control systems

- scaling approaches to evaluate model realism --> implies data against which models can be evaluated

- Crude Look at the Whole (CLAW)

==== Notes on Discussion (21 July 2009) ====

- normative models vs descriptive models

- macroeconomists largely ignored financial system; recent collapse in finance led to cascading collapse throughout macroeconomy (Ref: Economist article)

- importance of getting assumptions right from the beginning; possibility of using agent based models to avoid having to make as many assumptions

- water rights in Arizona (can't trade them; use or lose); interactions between humans, political system, natural environment

- can use REEDS model to some extent to figure out how to flip grid to include larger amount of renewables

- stranded assets (investments made under old regulatory regime become much less valuable under new rules)

- lock in effects are very imporant; how to get out is hard problem ("buying out" actors who would otherwise have lots of stranded assets)

- how to make a financial product that acts as a catalyst to reduce economic barriers to change (help overcome lock in?

- corn ethanol, Mississippi river as examples of lock in

- What do we really mean by a "regime" of behavior in one of these extremely complex models? How can we recognize a regime when we see one (either in the computer model or when observing the system?

- lock in is related to resilience (ie lock in state is resilient to change)

- models of the political process (eg game theory [see paper on model of climate negotiations], Sam Bowles at SFI)

- validate agent based models using game theory results in simplified situations

- skepticism about game theory

- What can be done (or can be expected to be done) with agent based models that could not be done with other modeling approaches?

--- can it predict a transition path to a new state (eg involving more renewables, etc) that traditional (general equilibrium) economic models don't show

--- need for self reinforcing shift

--- a agent-based models simply change one set of assumptions (about set behavior of agents) for other set (have to argue that these assumptions are better in some way)

- in previous changes (industrial revolution, agriculture) arose spontaneously (or did they)

--- "The Prize" (gov'ts fought to create oil industry?); however once oil industry got going, it was self reinforcing

--- but is the transition to post-fossil fuel economy different (because problem is global warming, not running out of fossil fuels, at least not yet)

- how to get {renewable energy, efficiency, other sustainable practices} to point where they are self reinforcing?; what policies, technologies, cultural change, etc would be needed?

- NREL is interested in incorporating behavioral economics and possibly agent-based models

- Can a few big players shift the system (colloquially, a few more WalMarts)?

- stability of the grid when nondispatchable resources are added in large quantites

- utilities are key agents (large, reactionary)

- cash for clunkers (buying old cars to get them off the road)
--- but what about eg relatively new coal plants in bad site for sequestration that still need to be decommissioned to reach 350 ppm?

- need list of ways people have modeled economy and climate interactions in the past (ie proto lit review, covering neoclassical approaches, etc)

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-21T22:11:28Z

JBGeddesIII:

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-21T21:49:04Z

JBGeddesIII:

== Modeling Cluster ==

Gina La Cerva, Joe Geddes, Regina Clewlow, Ha Nguyen, Christa Brelsford, Adam Wolf

==== Motivating Questions ====

13) How can we better quantify uncertainty when we are in uncharted territory of the climate system (where change is happening faster and involving feedbacks we don't yet understand?

14) How do we develop useful integrated models? Are there feedback mechanisms that we don't understand?

27) What methods can be used and developed to quantify interactions between previously developed models of human, physical, and economic systems?

(I think this following question should be taken up by the ecosystem services group:)

31) What technologies or tools are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

==== Overall Objectives for Modeling ====

We agree that human-climate interactions are the most critical area of climate science modeling, because these have feedbacks which can either mitigate warming or amplify the consequences of warming. Furthermore these interactions are largely unexplored in a coupled system where feedbacks can be directly evaluated.

Several key human-climate interactions:

+ market dynamics that can lead to decarbonized energy technology implementation. tipping points. policy. investment.

- human migration

- increased energy use in adaptation, e.g. use of air conditioning

- infectious disease

==== Modeling Objectives ====

Several uses for models were identified, including

- policy evaluation (sensitivity analysis)

- validation

- forecasting and uncertainty analysis

==== Types of Models ====

- agent based modeling of markets, investment, policy

- agent based modeling of control systems

- scaling approaches to evaluate model realism --> implies data against which models can be evaluated

- Crude Look at the Whole (CLAW)

==== Notes on Discussion (21 July 2009) ====

- normative models vs descriptive models

- macroeconomists largely ignored financial system; recent collapse in finance led to cascading collapse throughout macroeconomy (Ref: Economist article)

- importance of getting assumptions right from the beginning; possibility of using agent based models to avoid having to make as many assumptions

- water rights in Arizona (can't trade them; use or lose); interactions between humans, political system, natural environment

- can use REEDS model to some extent to figure out how to flip grid to include larger amount of renewables

- stranded assets (investments made under old regulatory regime become much less valuable under new rules)

- lock in effects are very imporant; how to get out is hard problem ("buying out" actors who would otherwise have lots of stranded assets)

- how to make a financial product that acts as a catalyst to reduce economic barriers to change (help overcome lock in?

- corn ethanol, Mississippi river as examples of lock in

- What do we really mean by a "regime" of behavior in one of these extremely complex models? How can we recognize a regime when we see one (either in the computer model or when observing the system?

- lock in is related to resilience (ie lock in state is resilient to change)

- models of the political process (eg game theory [see paper on model of climate negotiations], Sam Bowles at SFI)

- validate agent based models using game theory results in simplified situations

- skepticism about game theory

- What can be done (or can be expected to be done) with agent based models that could not be done with other modeling approaches?

--- can it predict a transition path to a new state (eg involving more renewables, etc) that traditional (general equilibrium) economic models don't show

--- need for self reinforcing shift

--- a agent-based models simply change one set of assumptions (about set behavior of agents) for other set (have to argue that these assumptions are better in some way)

- in previous changes (industrial revolution, agriculture) arose spontaneously (or did they)

--- "The Prize" (gov'ts fought to create oil industry?)

--- but is the transition to post-fossil fuel economy different (because problem is global warming, not running out of fossil fuels, at least not yet)

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-21T21:30:14Z

JBGeddesIII:

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-21T21:20:34Z

JBGeddesIII:

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-21T20:58:58Z

JBGeddesIII:

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Complexity-Science

2009-07-21T20:52:04Z

JBGeddesIII: /* Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability */

==Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability==

Christa Brelsford, Joe Geddes, Gina LaCerva

===Questions and Notes===

How to couple together models of social, economic, and technical systems?

Complexity applied to urbanization could be very helpful since urbanization is so important for sustainability.

if global systems succumb to a catastrophic event, they were (by definition) not sustainable.

Various authors have listed catastrophic events that threaten civilization (Weizman, Diamond, Rees).

An important element of sustainability is to avoid catastrophic events.

SOS definition of resilience: Resilience is the amount of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same region of state space, dominated by the same set of processes.

In 70s or 80s there was a field called catastrophe theory (trying to predict large changes in physical and other types of systems), but it is now often referred to as a failure. Why? We don't want to repeat mistaken research programs of the past and so we should know why they failed, or if abandoning them was unjustified.

limits of knowledge

- what we don't know vs what we can't know

- understand limits of predictive power of models

some aspects of complexity:

- emergence

- sensitive dependence on initial and boundary conditions

- steady state but also novel behavior

- scaling laws and self organized criticality

- perpetual novelty

- can have underlying simplicity (but may not!)

complexity and technology topics

- studying development of more sustainable technologies and their learning curves; helping to create good portfolios of promising technologies

- studying how technologies are adopted (or not)

- many materials that could be useful for renewable energy and/or efficiency and/or catalysis, etc. exhibit complex systems behavior in their own right

- better understand complex technologies and technical systems to optimize them for much better efficiency; figure out ways to at least semi automate radical resource efficency in computer aided design

Does sustainability require that the rich help the poor?

===Resilience, Avoiding Catastrophe, and Complexity===

(original text by Christa Brelsford)

The first step in saving the world is keeping it from falling apart. In order to keep the world from falling apart, we have to know how it might fail. One method of increasing our understanding of global resilience is to provide methods to identify and quantify the interactions between systems dominated by human choices and behavior, systems dominated by economic decisions and institutions, and physical systems like ecosystems, human constructed infrastructure, and geophysical systems.

Quantitative models exist in each of the three spheres of sustainability, but few methods exist for linking these highly interactive spheres. Systems with behavior highly dependent on human choice can be modeled assuming the absence of a human presence. This provides useful insight into the behavior of the system, but if it is highly managed or feedbacks exist, a combined model of human choice and the complete system may provide better insight. I propose developing and codifying methods to model and validate interactions between each of the three major spheres.

The clearest closed system that involves humans is the entire earth, and all the physical, social and economic processes that it contains. A closed system is one in which external driving forces are not affected by the state of the system. Our recent economic troubles have shown that human economic institutions are global in scope, and each national economy is driven in part by the state of others. The driving forces behind the physical climate can also only be modeled on a global scale. Therefore, any human system smaller than the globe will not be a truly closed system, and it may not be possible to define if it is in a sustainable state or not. A closed system that never experiences failure is sustainable. The threshold that defines failure depends on ethical choices, but could range from complete global ecosystem collapse where few humans survive and no modern institutions do, to any period of rapid and unexpected change in human institutions. Phrased differently, a system that is always resilient is sustainable. Resilience is defined as the magnitude of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same state space, governed by the same set of processes (). Some resilience thresholds induce a shift from a sustainable state, with others may not. Careful examination of the major system domains and their interactions on a global scale may help us understand the essential characteristics of a sustainable system.

However, a model that links complex and interacting systems on a global scale risks becoming too general and dependent on assumptions to provide useful information. Therefore, as an intermediate step, regional scale models that primarily consider interactions between two of the three major domains can be built. Insights from regional models may scale to the global system.

On a regional scale, one method for increasing understanding of the interactions between human and physical systems uses agent based modeling. I propose developing an agent based model of dams on the Colorado river basin. The agents follow hierarchical rule structure that mimics the existing legal hierarchy of water rights, in-stream flow requirements and other regulations from EIS’s, and optimization of water releases to maximize the value of hydroelectric power generation. This model will then be layered on top of a 2 dimensional hydrological model of the river basin created using SWWM5. Water speed, temperature and quality will be included. Once the tool is developed, trade-offs between hydroelectric power generation and ecosystem health, biodiversity, and endangered species survival can be quantified. Additionally, when the model includes rigorous water demand models, the first area of failure under different policy and climate scenarios can be modeled. The model can be validated against historical data and also by layering the ABM part on IEISS.

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Complexity-Science

2009-07-21T20:47:46Z

JBGeddesIII: /* Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability */

==Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability==

===Questions and Notes===

How to couple together models of social, economic, and technical systems?

Complexity applied to urbanization could be very helpful since urbanization is so important for sustainability.

if global systems succumb to a catastrophic event, they were (by definition) not sustainable.

Various authors have listed catastrophic events that threaten civilization (Weizman, Diamond, Rees).

An important element of sustainability is to avoid catastrophic events.

SOS definition of resilience: Resilience is the amount of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same region of state space, dominated by the same set of processes.

In 70s or 80s there was a field called catastrophe theory (trying to predict large changes in physical and other types of systems), but it is now often referred to as a failure. Why? We don't want to repeat mistaken research programs of the past and so we should know why they failed, or if abandoning them was unjustified.

limits of knowledge

- what we don't know vs what we can't know

- understand limits of predictive power of models

some aspects of complexity:

- emergence

- sensitive dependence on initial and boundary conditions

- steady state but also novel behavior

- scaling laws and self organized criticality

- perpetual novelty

- can have underlying simplicity (but may not!)

complexity and technology topics

- studying development of more sustainable technologies and their learning curves; helping to create good portfolios of promising technologies

- studying how technologies are adopted (or not)

- many materials that could be useful for renewable energy and/or efficiency and/or catalysis, etc. exhibit complex systems behavior in their own right

- better understand complex technologies and technical systems to optimize them for much better efficiency; figure out ways to at least semi automate radical resource efficency in computer aided design

Does sustainability require that the rich help the poor?

===Resilience, Avoiding Catastrophe, and Complexity===

(original text by Christa Brelsford)

The first step in saving the world is keeping it from falling apart. In order to keep the world from falling apart, we have to know how it might fail. One method of increasing our understanding of global resilience is to provide methods to identify and quantify the interactions between systems dominated by human choices and behavior, systems dominated by economic decisions and institutions, and physical systems like ecosystems, human constructed infrastructure, and geophysical systems.

Quantitative models exist in each of the three spheres of sustainability, but few methods exist for linking these highly interactive spheres. Systems with behavior highly dependent on human choice can be modeled assuming the absence of a human presence. This provides useful insight into the behavior of the system, but if it is highly managed or feedbacks exist, a combined model of human choice and the complete system may provide better insight. I propose developing and codifying methods to model and validate interactions between each of the three major spheres.

The clearest closed system that involves humans is the entire earth, and all the physical, social and economic processes that it contains. A closed system is one in which external driving forces are not affected by the state of the system. Our recent economic troubles have shown that human economic institutions are global in scope, and each national economy is driven in part by the state of others. The driving forces behind the physical climate can also only be modeled on a global scale. Therefore, any human system smaller than the globe will not be a truly closed system, and it may not be possible to define if it is in a sustainable state or not. A closed system that never experiences failure is sustainable. The threshold that defines failure depends on ethical choices, but could range from complete global ecosystem collapse where few humans survive and no modern institutions do, to any period of rapid and unexpected change in human institutions. Phrased differently, a system that is always resilient is sustainable. Resilience is defined as the magnitude of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same state space, governed by the same set of processes (). Some resilience thresholds induce a shift from a sustainable state, with others may not. Careful examination of the major system domains and their interactions on a global scale may help us understand the essential characteristics of a sustainable system.

However, a model that links complex and interacting systems on a global scale risks becoming too general and dependent on assumptions to provide useful information. Therefore, as an intermediate step, regional scale models that primarily consider interactions between two of the three major domains can be built. Insights from regional models may scale to the global system.

On a regional scale, one method for increasing understanding of the interactions between human and physical systems uses agent based modeling. I propose developing an agent based model of dams on the Colorado river basin. The agents follow hierarchical rule structure that mimics the existing legal hierarchy of water rights, in-stream flow requirements and other regulations from EIS’s, and optimization of water releases to maximize the value of hydroelectric power generation. This model will then be layered on top of a 2 dimensional hydrological model of the river basin created using SWWM5. Water speed, temperature and quality will be included. Once the tool is developed, trade-offs between hydroelectric power generation and ecosystem health, biodiversity, and endangered species survival can be quantified. Additionally, when the model includes rigorous water demand models, the first area of failure under different policy and climate scenarios can be modeled. The model can be validated against historical data and also by layering the ABM part on IEISS.

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Complexity-Science

2009-07-21T20:45:51Z

JBGeddesIII: /* Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability */

==Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability==

===Questions and Notes===
How to couple together models of social, economic, and technical systems?

Complexity applied to urbanization could be very helpful since urbanization is so important for sustainability.

if global systems succumb to a catastrophic event, they were (by definition) not sustainable.

Various authors have listed catastrophic events that threaten civilization (Weizman, Diamond, Rees).

An important element of sustainability is to avoid catastrophic events.

SOS definition of resilience: Resilience is the amount of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same region of state space, dominated by the same set of processes.

In 70s or 80s there was a field called catastrophe theory (trying to predict large changes in physical and other types of systems), but it is now often referred to as a failure. Why? We don't want to repeat mistaken research programs of the past and so we should know why they failed, or if abandoning them was unjustified.

limits of knowledge

- what we don't know vs what we can't know

- understand limits of predictive power of models

some aspects of complexity:

- emergence

- sensitive dependence on initial and boundary conditions

- steady state but also novel behavior

- scaling laws and self organized criticality

- perpetual novelty

- can have underlying simplicity (but may not!)

complexity and technology topics

- studying development of more sustainable technologies and their learning curves; helping to create good portfolios of promising technologies

- studying how technologies are adopted (or not)

- many materials that could be useful for renewable energy and/or efficiency and/or catalysis, etc. exhibit complex systems behavior in their own right

- better understand complex technologies and technical systems to optimize them for much better efficiency; figure out ways to at least semi automate radical resource efficency in computer aided design

Does sustainability require that the rich help the poor?

===Resilience, Avoiding Catastrophe, and Complexity (original text by Christa Brelsford)===

The first step in saving the world is keeping it from falling apart. In order to keep the world from falling apart, we have to know how it might fail. One method of increasing our understanding of global resilience is to provide methods to identify and quantify the interactions between systems dominated by human choices and behavior, systems dominated by economic decisions and institutions, and physical systems like ecosystems, human constructed infrastructure, and geophysical systems.

Quantitative models exist in each of the three spheres of sustainability, but few methods exist for linking these highly interactive spheres. Systems with behavior highly dependent on human choice can be modeled assuming the absence of a human presence. This provides useful insight into the behavior of the system, but if it is highly managed or feedbacks exist, a combined model of human choice and the complete system may provide better insight. I propose developing and codifying methods to model and validate interactions between each of the three major spheres.

The clearest closed system that involves humans is the entire earth, and all the physical, social and economic processes that it contains. A closed system is one in which external driving forces are not affected by the state of the system. Our recent economic troubles have shown that human economic institutions are global in scope, and each national economy is driven in part by the state of others. The driving forces behind the physical climate can also only be modeled on a global scale. Therefore, any human system smaller than the globe will not be a truly closed system, and it may not be possible to define if it is in a sustainable state or not. A closed system that never experiences failure is sustainable. The threshold that defines failure depends on ethical choices, but could range from complete global ecosystem collapse where few humans survive and no modern institutions do, to any period of rapid and unexpected change in human institutions. Phrased differently, a system that is always resilient is sustainable. Resilience is defined as the magnitude of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same state space, governed by the same set of processes (). Some resilience thresholds induce a shift from a sustainable state, with others may not. Careful examination of the major system domains and their interactions on a global scale may help us understand the essential characteristics of a sustainable system.

However, a model that links complex and interacting systems on a global scale risks becoming too general and dependent on assumptions to provide useful information. Therefore, as an intermediate step, regional scale models that primarily consider interactions between two of the three major domains can be built. Insights from regional models may scale to the global system.

On a regional scale, one method for increasing understanding of the interactions between human and physical systems uses agent based modeling. I propose developing an agent based model of dams on the Colorado river basin. The agents follow hierarchical rule structure that mimics the existing legal hierarchy of water rights, in-stream flow requirements and other regulations from EIS’s, and optimization of water releases to maximize the value of hydroelectric power generation. This model will then be layered on top of a 2 dimensional hydrological model of the river basin created using SWWM5. Water speed, temperature and quality will be included. Once the tool is developed, trade-offs between hydroelectric power generation and ecosystem health, biodiversity, and endangered species survival can be quantified. Additionally, when the model includes rigorous water demand models, the first area of failure under different policy and climate scenarios can be modeled. The model can be validated against historical data and also by layering the ABM part on IEISS.

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Complexity-Science

2009-07-21T20:42:38Z

JBGeddesIII: /* Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability */

==Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability==

How to couple together models of social, economic, and technical systems?

Complexity applied to urbanization could be very helpful since urbanization is so important for sustainability.

if global systems succumb to a catastrophic event, they were (by definition) not sustainable.

Various authors have listed catastrophic events that threaten civilization (Weizman, Diamond, Rees).

An important element of sustainability is to avoid catastrophic events.

SOS definition of resilience: Resilience is the amount of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same region of state space, dominated by the same set of processes.

In 70s or 80s there was a field called catastrophe theory (trying to predict large changes in physical and other types of systems), but it is now often referred to as a failure. Why? We don't want to repeat mistaken research programs of the past and so we should know why they failed, or if abandoning them was unjustified.

limits of knowledge

- what we don't know vs what we can't know

- understand limits of predictive power of models

some aspects of complexity:

- emergence

- sensitive dependence on initial and boundary conditions

- steady state but also novel behavior

- scaling laws and self organized criticality

- perpetual novelty

- can have underlying simplicity (but may not!)

complexity and technology topics

- studying development of more sustainable technologies and their learning curves; helping to create good portfolios of promising technologies

- studying how technologies are adopted (or not)

- many materials that could be useful for renewable energy and/or efficiency and/or catalysis, etc. exhibit complex systems behavior in their own right

- better understand complex technologies and technical systems to optimize them for much better efficiency; figure out ways to at least semi automate radical resource efficency in computer aided design

Does sustainability require that the rich help the poor?

The first step in saving the world is keeping it from falling apart. In order to keep the world from falling apart, we have to know how it might fail. One method of increasing our understanding of global resilience is to provide methods to identify and quantify the interactions between systems dominated by human choices and behavior, systems dominated by economic decisions and institutions, and physical systems like ecosystems, human constructed infrastructure, and geophysical systems.

Quantitative models exist in each of the three spheres of sustainability, but few methods exist for linking these highly interactive spheres. Systems with behavior highly dependent on human choice can be modeled assuming the absence of a human presence. This provides useful insight into the behavior of the system, but if it is highly managed or feedbacks exist, a combined model of human choice and the complete system may provide better insight. I propose developing and codifying methods to model and validate interactions between each of the three major spheres.

The clearest closed system that involves humans is the entire earth, and all the physical, social and economic processes that it contains. A closed system is one in which external driving forces are not affected by the state of the system. Our recent economic troubles have shown that human economic institutions are global in scope, and each national economy is driven in part by the state of others. The driving forces behind the physical climate can also only be modeled on a global scale. Therefore, any human system smaller than the globe will not be a truly closed system, and it may not be possible to define if it is in a sustainable state or not. A closed system that never experiences failure is sustainable. The threshold that defines failure depends on ethical choices, but could range from complete global ecosystem collapse where few humans survive and no modern institutions do, to any period of rapid and unexpected change in human institutions. Phrased differently, a system that is always resilient is sustainable. Resilience is defined as the magnitude of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same state space, governed by the same set of processes (). Some resilience thresholds induce a shift from a sustainable state, with others may not. Careful examination of the major system domains and their interactions on a global scale may help us understand the essential characteristics of a sustainable system.

However, a model that links complex and interacting systems on a global scale risks becoming too general and dependent on assumptions to provide useful information. Therefore, as an intermediate step, regional scale models that primarily consider interactions between two of the three major domains can be built. Insights from regional models may scale to the global system.

On a regional scale, one method for increasing understanding of the interactions between human and physical systems uses agent based modeling. I propose developing an agent based model of dams on the Colorado river basin. The agents follow hierarchical rule structure that mimics the existing legal hierarchy of water rights, in-stream flow requirements and other regulations from EIS’s, and optimization of water releases to maximize the value of hydroelectric power generation. This model will then be layered on top of a 2 dimensional hydrological model of the river basin created using SWWM5. Water speed, temperature and quality will be included. Once the tool is developed, trade-offs between hydroelectric power generation and ecosystem health, biodiversity, and endangered species survival can be quantified. Additionally, when the model includes rigorous water demand models, the first area of failure under different policy and climate scenarios can be modeled. The model can be validated against historical data and also by layering the ABM part on IEISS.

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Complexity-Science

2009-07-21T20:40:42Z

JBGeddesIII: /* Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability */

==Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability==

How to couple together models of social, economic, and technical systems?

Complexity applied to urbanization could be very helpful since urbanization is so important for sustainability.

if global systems succumb to a catastrophic event, they were (by definition) not sustainable.

Various authors have listed catastrophic events that threaten civilization (Weizman, Diamond, Rees).

An important element of sustainability is to avoid catastrophic events.

SOS definition of resilience: Resilience is the amount of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same region of state space, dominated by the same set of processes.

In 70s or 80s there was a field called catastrophe theory (trying to predict large changes in physical and other types of systems), but it is now often referred to as a failure. Why? We don't want to repeat mistaken research programs of the past and so we should know why they failed, or if abandoning them was unjustified.

limits of knowledge
-- what we don't know vs what we can't know
-- understand limits of predictive power of models

some aspects of complexity:
-- emergence
-- sensitive dependence on initial and boundary conditions
-- steady state but also novel behavior
-- scaling laws and self organized criticality
-- perpetual novelty
-- can have underlying simplicity (but may not!)

complexity and technology topics
-- studying development of more sustainable technologies and their learning curves; helping to create good portfolios of promising technologies
-- studying how technologies are adopted (or not)
-- many materials that could be useful for renewable energy and/or efficiency and/or catalysis, etc. exhibit complex systems behavior in their own right
-- better understand complex technologies and technical systems to optimize them for much better efficiency; figure out ways to at least semi automate radical resource efficency in computer aided design

does sustainability require that the rich help the poor?

The first step in saving the world is keeping it from falling apart. In order to keep the world from falling apart, we have to know how it might fail. One method of increasing our understanding of global resilience is to provide methods to identify and quantify the interactions between systems dominated by human choices and behavior, systems dominated by economic decisions and institutions, and physical systems like ecosystems, human constructed infrastructure, and geophysical systems.

Quantitative models exist in each of the three spheres of sustainability, but few methods exist for linking these highly interactive spheres. Systems with behavior highly dependent on human choice can be modeled assuming the absence of a human presence. This provides useful insight into the behavior of the system, but if it is highly managed or feedbacks exist, a combined model of human choice and the complete system may provide better insight. I propose developing and codifying methods to model and validate interactions between each of the three major spheres.

The clearest closed system that involves humans is the entire earth, and all the physical, social and economic processes that it contains. A closed system is one in which external driving forces are not affected by the state of the system. Our recent economic troubles have shown that human economic institutions are global in scope, and each national economy is driven in part by the state of others. The driving forces behind the physical climate can also only be modeled on a global scale. Therefore, any human system smaller than the globe will not be a truly closed system, and it may not be possible to define if it is in a sustainable state or not. A closed system that never experiences failure is sustainable. The threshold that defines failure depends on ethical choices, but could range from complete global ecosystem collapse where few humans survive and no modern institutions do, to any period of rapid and unexpected change in human institutions. Phrased differently, a system that is always resilient is sustainable. Resilience is defined as the magnitude of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same state space, governed by the same set of processes (). Some resilience thresholds induce a shift from a sustainable state, with others may not. Careful examination of the major system domains and their interactions on a global scale may help us understand the essential characteristics of a sustainable system.

However, a model that links complex and interacting systems on a global scale risks becoming too general and dependent on assumptions to provide useful information. Therefore, as an intermediate step, regional scale models that primarily consider interactions between two of the three major domains can be built. Insights from regional models may scale to the global system.

On a regional scale, one method for increasing understanding of the interactions between human and physical systems uses agent based modeling. I propose developing an agent based model of dams on the Colorado river basin. The agents follow hierarchical rule structure that mimics the existing legal hierarchy of water rights, in-stream flow requirements and other regulations from EIS’s, and optimization of water releases to maximize the value of hydroelectric power generation. This model will then be layered on top of a 2 dimensional hydrological model of the river basin created using SWWM5. Water speed, temperature and quality will be included. Once the tool is developed, trade-offs between hydroelectric power generation and ecosystem health, biodiversity, and endangered species survival can be quantified. Additionally, when the model includes rigorous water demand models, the first area of failure under different policy and climate scenarios can be modeled. The model can be validated against historical data and also by layering the ABM part on IEISS.

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Complexity-Science

2009-07-21T20:35:32Z

JBGeddesIII: /* Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability */

==Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability==

How to couple together models of social, economic, and technical systems?

Complexity applied to urbanization could be very helpful since urbanization is so important for sustainability.

if global systems succumb to a catastrophic event, they were (by definition) not sustainable.

Various authors have listed catastrophic events that threaten civilization (Weizman, Diamond, Rees).

An important element of sustainability is to avoid catastrophic events.

SOS definition of resilience: _?__

in 70s or 80s there was a field called catastrophe theory (trying to predict large changes in physical and other types of systems), but it is now often referred to as a failure --- why? (ie we don't want to repeat mistaken research programs of the past and so we should know why they failed, or if abandoning them was unjustified)

limits of knowledge
-- what we don't know vs what we can't know
-- understand limits of predictive power of models

some aspects of complexity:
-- emergence
-- sensitive dependence on initial and boundary conditions
-- steady state but also novel behavior
-- scaling laws and self organized criticality
-- perpetual novelty
-- can have underlying simplicity (but may not!)

complexity and technology topics
-- studying development of more sustainable technologies and their learning curves; helping to create good portfolios of promising technologies
-- studying how technologies are adopted (or not)
-- many materials that could be useful for renewable energy and/or efficiency and/or catalysis, etc. exhibit complex systems behavior in their own right
-- better understand complex technologies and technical systems to optimize them for much better efficiency; figure out ways to at least semi automate radical resource efficency in computer aided design

does sustainability require that the rich help the poor?

The first step in saving the world is keeping it from falling apart. In order to keep the world from falling apart, we have to know how it might fail. One method of increasing our understanding of global resilience is to provide methods to identify and quantify the interactions between systems dominated by human choices and behavior, systems dominated by economic decisions and institutions, and physical systems like ecosystems, human constructed infrastructure, and geophysical systems.

Quantitative models exist in each of the three spheres of sustainability, but few methods exist for linking these highly interactive spheres. Systems with behavior highly dependent on human choice can be modeled assuming the absence of a human presence. This provides useful insight into the behavior of the system, but if it is highly managed or feedbacks exist, a combined model of human choice and the complete system may provide better insight. I propose developing and codifying methods to model and validate interactions between each of the three major spheres.

The clearest closed system that involves humans is the entire earth, and all the physical, social and economic processes that it contains. A closed system is one in which external driving forces are not affected by the state of the system. Our recent economic troubles have shown that human economic institutions are global in scope, and each national economy is driven in part by the state of others. The driving forces behind the physical climate can also only be modeled on a global scale. Therefore, any human system smaller than the globe will not be a truly closed system, and it may not be possible to define if it is in a sustainable state or not. A closed system that never experiences failure is sustainable. The threshold that defines failure depends on ethical choices, but could range from complete global ecosystem collapse where few humans survive and no modern institutions do, to any period of rapid and unexpected change in human institutions. Phrased differently, a system that is always resilient is sustainable. Resilience is defined as the magnitude of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same state space, governed by the same set of processes (). Some resilience thresholds induce a shift from a sustainable state, with others may not. Careful examination of the major system domains and their interactions on a global scale may help us understand the essential characteristics of a sustainable system.

However, a model that links complex and interacting systems on a global scale risks becoming too general and dependent on assumptions to provide useful information. Therefore, as an intermediate step, regional scale models that primarily consider interactions between two of the three major domains can be built. Insights from regional models may scale to the global system.

On a regional scale, one method for increasing understanding of the interactions between human and physical systems uses agent based modeling. I propose developing an agent based model of dams on the Colorado river basin. The agents follow hierarchical rule structure that mimics the existing legal hierarchy of water rights, in-stream flow requirements and other regulations from EIS’s, and optimization of water releases to maximize the value of hydroelectric power generation. This model will then be layered on top of a 2 dimensional hydrological model of the river basin created using SWWM5. Water speed, temperature and quality will be included. Once the tool is developed, trade-offs between hydroelectric power generation and ecosystem health, biodiversity, and endangered species survival can be quantified. Additionally, when the model includes rigorous water demand models, the first area of failure under different policy and climate scenarios can be modeled. The model can be validated against historical data and also by layering the ABM part on IEISS.

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Complexity-Science

2009-07-21T20:31:59Z

JBGeddesIII: New page: ==Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability== how to couple together models of social, economic, and technical systems? complexity applied to urbanization could be very...

==Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability==

how to couple together models of social, economic, and technical systems?

complexity applied to urbanization could be very helpful since urbanization is so important for sustainability

if global systems succumb to a catastrophic event, they were (by definition) not sustainable

various authors have listed catastrophic events that threaten civilization (Weizman, Diamond, Rees)

an important element of sustainability is to avoid catastrophic events

SOS definition of resilience: _?__

in 70s or 80s there was a field called catastrophe theory (trying to predict large changes in physical and other types of systems), but it is now often referred to as a failure --- why? (ie we don't want to repeat mistaken research programs of the past and so we should know why they failed, or if abandoning them was unjustified)

limits of knowledge
-- what we don't know vs what we can't know
-- understand limits of predictive power of models

some aspects of complexity:
-- emergence
-- sensitive dependence on initial and boundary conditions
-- steady state but also novel behavior
-- scaling laws and self organized criticality
-- perpetual novelty
-- can have underlying simplicity (but may not!)

complexity and technology topics
-- studying development of more sustainable technologies and their learning curves; helping to create good portfolios of promising technologies
-- studying how technologies are adopted (or not)
-- many materials that could be useful for renewable energy and/or efficiency and/or catalysis, etc. exhibit complex systems behavior in their own right
-- better understand complex technologies and technical systems to optimize them for much better efficiency; figure out ways to at least semi automate radical resource efficency in computer aided design

does sustainability require that the rich help the poor?

The first step in saving the world is keeping it from falling apart. In order to keep the world from falling apart, we have to know how it might fail. One method of increasing our understanding of global resilience is to provide methods to identify and quantify the interactions between systems dominated by human choices and behavior, systems dominated by economic decisions and institutions, and physical systems like ecosystems, human constructed infrastructure, and geophysical systems.

Quantitative models exist in each of the three spheres of sustainability, but few methods exist for linking these highly interactive spheres. Systems with behavior highly dependent on human choice can be modeled assuming the absence of a human presence. This provides useful insight into the behavior of the system, but if it is highly managed or feedbacks exist, a combined model of human choice and the complete system may provide better insight. I propose developing and codifying methods to model and validate interactions between each of the three major spheres.

The clearest closed system that involves humans is the entire earth, and all the physical, social and economic processes that it contains. A closed system is one in which external driving forces are not affected by the state of the system. Our recent economic troubles have shown that human economic institutions are global in scope, and each national economy is driven in part by the state of others. The driving forces behind the physical climate can also only be modeled on a global scale. Therefore, any human system smaller than the globe will not be a truly closed system, and it may not be possible to define if it is in a sustainable state or not. A closed system that never experiences failure is sustainable. The threshold that defines failure depends on ethical choices, but could range from complete global ecosystem collapse where few humans survive and no modern institutions do, to any period of rapid and unexpected change in human institutions. Phrased differently, a system that is always resilient is sustainable. Resilience is defined as the magnitude of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same state space, governed by the same set of processes (). Some resilience thresholds induce a shift from a sustainable state, with others may not. Careful examination of the major system domains and their interactions on a global scale may help us understand the essential characteristics of a sustainable system.

However, a model that links complex and interacting systems on a global scale risks becoming too general and dependent on assumptions to provide useful information. Therefore, as an intermediate step, regional scale models that primarily consider interactions between two of the three major domains can be built. Insights from regional models may scale to the global system.

On a regional scale, one method for increasing understanding of the interactions between human and physical systems uses agent based modeling. I propose developing an agent based model of dams on the Colorado river basin. The agents follow hierarchical rule structure that mimics the existing legal hierarchy of water rights, in-stream flow requirements and other regulations from EIS’s, and optimization of water releases to maximize the value of hydroelectric power generation. This model will then be layered on top of a 2 dimensional hydrological model of the river basin created using SWWM5. Water speed, temperature and quality will be included. Once the tool is developed, trade-offs between hydroelectric power generation and ecosystem health, biodiversity, and endangered species survival can be quantified. Additionally, when the model includes rigorous water demand models, the first area of failure under different policy and climate scenarios can be modeled. The model can be validated against historical data and also by layering the ABM part on IEISS.

Summer School on Global Sustainability-Working Group Wiki Page

2009-07-21T20:24:02Z

JBGeddesIII: /* Project Groups */

Joseph Geddes

2009-05-31T20:59:23Z

JBGeddesIII:

<center>[[Image: JoeGeddes.png | 135 px]]</center>

I am a postdoc at the Beckman Institute at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. My research interests center on novel optical materials applied to fundamental problems in optical devices and energy supply. One theme in the work is the optical properties of complex materials---i.e. materials in which many symmetries are broken on length scales comparable to optical wavelengths.

More information is available at my [http://www.jbg3.net web site].

== Research ==

One project aims to analyze the propagation of light through nanostructured materials. These include holographically fabricated photonic crystals and sculptured thin films, two materials that can be used to better match the impedance between semiconductors and air to make solar cells and light emitting diodes more efficient. Whole system optical design can help optimize the overall device efficiency. For example, I have analyzed the optics of photovoltaic systems that combine lens arrays with solar cells on flexible substrates [1]. The flexibility of the substrates allows for the possibility of folding up the module to make a cheap one-axis tracker. Such lens and module designs could reduce the range of incidence angles over which the impedance must be matched.

A second project concerns the design of optical materials with desirable characteristics. A metamaterial is a composite whose properties---i.e., strength, electrical conductivity, piezoelectric coefficients, etc.---are either qualitatively different or quantitatively surpass those of its components. These composites, which have been extant for some time, do not obey the simple volume mixing rules that lie at the heart of much theory on composite materials [2, 3]. As such, they exhibit a form of emergent behavior. My calculations indicate that the intrinsically large nonlinearities of metals could be accessed and increased by fabrication of composites comprising alternating metal and dielectric layers of subwavelength thickness [4]. The effective third-order nonlinear susceptibilities could be orders of magnitude larger than those intrinsic to the metallic component due to a resonance effect, though the enhancement is limited to the direction perpendicular to the layer interfaces.

Another effort is directed at a more fundamental understanding of how to control electrons and phonons in condensed matter. This area has been identified by the Department of Energy as a grand challenge in basic science that must be solved to underpin future energy technology [5]. I helped develop an optical pulse shaping algorithm to coherently excite the vibrational normal modes of a chemical species of interest [6, 7]. This algorithm was originally developed for biological imaging, but I intend to extend its range of applicability to more general problems of coherent control of complex matter. The ultimate goal is to eventually use the knowledge gained to help design such technologies as optical nanoantenna rectifiers or photocatalysts.

== Sustainability ==

Like the notion of complexity itself, the definitions people use for sustainability vary with context. How can the sustainability of global human and ecological systems be measured? To start, it might help to examine ideas from physics and engineering that may shed some light on the larger issue of global sustainability: equilibria (static and dynamic), stability, and self organized criticality. What are necessary and sufficient conditions for a complex physical system to be sustainable, and can any of those conditions be extended to apply in a global context? In particular, how much of an unsustainable system's behavior can be explained by either its inability to react quickly enough (i.e. slow feedback) or by inappropriate reactions (i.e. insufficient or wrong responses)?

Although my primary interest in sustainability concerns energy supply and climate change, I would like to learn about and discuss some other global systems: water, biodiversity, the nitrogen cycle, etc. It would be interesting to identify commonalities and interactions between those systems and those of energy and climate.

At the summer school, I would like to learn how to better place my own materials and optics research into a larger context of technology development. Several recent papers on the dynamics of energy technology development by Santa Fe Institute researchers (e.g. [8]) piqued my interest in this topic. How do the dynamics of change in energy technologies compare to those for other technologies that affect sustainability?

== References ==

[1] J. Yoon, A. J. Baca, S.-I. Park, P. Elvikis, J. B. Geddes III, L. Li, R. H. Kim, J. Xiao, S. Wang, T-H. Kim, M. J. Motala, B. Y. Ahn, E. B. Duoss, J. A. Lewis, R. G. Nuzzo, P. M. Ferreira, Y. Huang, A. Rockett, and J. A. Rogers, Ultrathin silicon solar microcells for semitransparent, mechanically ﬂexible and microconcentrator module designs, Nature Mater., 7:907-915, 2008.

[2] A. Lakhtakia, ed., Selected Papers on Linear Optical Composite Materials, SPIE, Bellingham, WA, USA, 1996.

[3] R. M. Walser, Metamaterials: An introduction, in W. Weiglhofer and A. Lakhtakia, eds., Introduction to Complex Mediums for Optics and Electromagnetics. SPIE, Bellingham, WA, USA, 2003.

[4] J. B. Geddes III, E. C. Nelson, and P. V. Braun, Design of uniaxial metallodielectric metamaterials having large optical nonlinearities, APS March Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA, 10-14 Mar. 2008.

[5] Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee, U. S. Department of Energy, Directing matter and energy: Five challenges for science and the imagination, 2007.

[6] D. L. Marks, J. B. Geddes III, and S. A. Boppart, Molecular identiﬁcation by generating coherence between molecular normal modes using stimulated raman scattering, accepted by Opt. Lett., 10 Feb. 2009.

[7] J. B. Geddes III, D. L. Marks, and S. A. Boppart. Optical pulse shaping for selective excitation of coherent molecular vibrations by stimulated Raman scattering, Proc. SPIE 7183:718311, 2009.

[8] J. D. Farmer and J. Trancik, Dynamics of technological development in the energy sector, The London Accord, 1-24, 2007.

Joseph Geddes

2009-05-14T16:12:25Z

JBGeddesIII:

<center>[[Image: JoeGeddes.png | 135 px]]</center>

I am a postdoc at the Beckman Institute at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. My research interests center on novel optical materials applied to fundamental problems in optical devices and energy supply. One theme in the work is the optical properties of complex materials---i.e. materials in which many symmetries are broken on length scales comparable to optical wavelengths.

== Research ==

One project aims to analyze the propagation of light through nanostructured materials. These include holographically fabricated photonic crystals and sculptured thin films, two materials that can be used to better match the impedance between semiconductors and air to make solar cells and light emitting diodes more efficient. Whole system optical design can help optimize the overall device efficiency. For example, I have analyzed the optics of photovoltaic systems that combine lens arrays with solar cells on flexible substrates [1]. The flexibility of the substrates allows for the possibility of folding up the module to make a cheap one-axis tracker. Such lens and module designs could reduce the range of incidence angles over which the impedance must be matched.

A second project concerns the design of optical materials with desirable characteristics. A metamaterial is a composite whose properties---i.e., strength, electrical conductivity, piezoelectric coefficients, etc.---are either qualitatively different or quantitatively surpass those of its components. These composites, which have been extant for some time, do not obey the simple volume mixing rules that lie at the heart of much theory on composite materials [2, 3]. As such, they exhibit a form of emergent behavior. My calculations indicate that the intrinsically large nonlinearities of metals could be accessed and increased by fabrication of composites comprising alternating metal and dielectric layers of subwavelength thickness [4]. The effective third-order nonlinear susceptibilities could be orders of magnitude larger than those intrinsic to the metallic component due to a resonance effect, though the enhancement is limited to the direction perpendicular to the layer interfaces.

Another effort is directed at a more fundamental understanding of how to control electrons and phonons in condensed matter. This area has been identified by the Department of Energy as a grand challenge in basic science that must be solved to underpin future energy technology [5]. I helped develop an optical pulse shaping algorithm to coherently excite the vibrational normal modes of a chemical species of interest [6, 7]. This algorithm was originally developed for biological imaging, but I intend to extend its range of applicability to more general problems of coherent control of complex matter. The ultimate goal is to eventually use the knowledge gained to help design such technologies as optical nanoantenna rectifiers or photocatalysts.

More information is available at my [http://www.jbg3.net web site].

== Sustainability ==

Like the notion of complexity itself, the definitions people use for sustainability vary with context. How can the sustainability of global human and ecological systems be measured? To start, it might help to examine ideas from physics and engineering that may shed some light on the larger issue of global sustainability: equilibria (static and dynamic), stability, and self organized criticality. What are necessary and sufficient conditions for a complex physical system to be sustainable, and can any of those conditions be extended to apply in a global context? In particular, how much of an unsustainable system's behavior can be explained by either its inability to react quickly enough (i.e. slow feedback) or by inappropriate reactions (i.e. insufficient or wrong responses)?

Although my primary interest in sustainability concerns energy supply and climate change, I would like to learn about and discuss some other global systems: water, biodiversity, the nitrogen cycle, etc. It would be interesting to identify commonalities and interactions between those systems and those of energy and climate.

At the summer school, I would like to learn how to better place my own materials and optics research into a larger context of technology development. Several recent papers on the dynamics of energy technology development by Santa Fe Institute researchers (e.g. [8]) piqued my interest in this topic. How do the dynamics of change in energy technologies compare to those for other technologies that affect sustainability?

== References ==

[1] J. Yoon, A. J. Baca, S.-I. Park, P. Elvikis, J. B. Geddes III, L. Li, R. H. Kim, J. Xiao, S. Wang, T-H. Kim, M. J. Motala, B. Y. Ahn, E. B. Duoss, J. A. Lewis, R. G. Nuzzo, P. M. Ferreira, Y. Huang, A. Rockett, and J. A. Rogers, Ultrathin silicon solar microcells for semitransparent, mechanically ﬂexible and microconcentrator module designs, Nature Mater., 7:907-915, 2008.

[2] A. Lakhtakia, ed., Selected Papers on Linear Optical Composite Materials, SPIE, Bellingham, WA, USA, 1996.

[3] R. M. Walser, Metamaterials: An introduction, in W. Weiglhofer and A. Lakhtakia, eds., Introduction to Complex Mediums for Optics and Electromagnetics. SPIE, Bellingham, WA, USA, 2003.

[4] J. B. Geddes III, E. C. Nelson, and P. V. Braun, Design of uniaxial metallodielectric metamaterials having large optical nonlinearities, APS March Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA, 10-14 Mar. 2008.

[5] Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee, U. S. Department of Energy, Directing matter and energy: Five challenges for science and the imagination, 2007.

[6] D. L. Marks, J. B. Geddes III, and S. A. Boppart, Molecular identiﬁcation by generating coherence between molecular normal modes using stimulated raman scattering, accepted by Opt. Lett., 10 Feb. 2009.

[7] J. B. Geddes III, D. L. Marks, and S. A. Boppart. Optical pulse shaping for selective excitation of coherent molecular vibrations by stimulated Raman scattering, Proc. SPIE 7183:718311, 2009.

[8] J. D. Farmer and J. Trancik, Dynamics of technological development in the energy sector, The London Accord, 1-24, 2007.

Joseph Geddes

2009-05-14T02:22:31Z

JBGeddesIII: New page: <center>Image: JoeGeddes.png</center> I am a postdoc at the Beckman Institute at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. My research interests center on novel optical material...

<center>[[Image: JoeGeddes.png]]</center>

I am a postdoc at the Beckman Institute at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. My research interests center on novel optical materials applied to fundamental problems in optical devices and energy supply. One theme in the work is the optical properties of complex materials---i.e. materials in which many symmetries are broken on length scales comparable to optical wavelengths.

== Research ==

One project aims to analyze the propagation of light through nanostructured materials. These include holographically fabricated photonic crystals and sculptured thin films, two materials that can be used to better match the impedance between semiconductors and air to make solar cells and light emitting diodes more efficient. Whole system optical design can help optimize the overall device efficiency. For example, I have analyzed the optics of photovoltaic systems that combine lens arrays with solar cells on flexible substrates [1]. The flexibility of the substrates allows for the possibility of folding up the module to make a cheap one-axis tracker. Such lens and module designs could reduce the range of incidence angles over which the impedance must be matched.

A second project concerns the design of optical materials with desirable characteristics. A metamaterial is a composite whose properties---i.e., strength, electrical conductivity, piezoelectric coefficients, etc.---are either qualitatively different or quantitatively surpass those of its components. These composites, which have been extant for some time, do not obey the simple volume mixing rules that lie at the heart of much theory on composite materials [2, 3]. As such, they exhibit a form of emergent behavior. My calculations indicate that the intrinsically large nonlinearities of metals could be accessed and increased by fabrication of composites comprising alternating metal and dielectric layers of subwavelength thickness [4]. The effective third-order nonlinear susceptibilities could be orders of magnitude larger than those intrinsic to the metallic component due to a resonance effect, though the enhancement is limited to the direction perpendicular to the layer interfaces.

Another effort is directed at a more fundamental understanding of how to control electrons and phonons in condensed matter. This area has been identified by the Department of Energy as a grand challenge in basic science that must be solved to underpin future energy technology [5]. I helped develop an optical pulse shaping algorithm to coherently excite the vibrational normal modes of a chemical species of interest [6, 7]. This algorithm was originally developed for biological imaging, but I intend to extend its range of applicability to more general problems of coherent control of complex matter. The ultimate goal is to eventually use the knowledge gained to help design such technologies as optical nanoantenna rectifiers or photocatalysts.

More information is available at my [http://www.jbg3.net web site].

== Sustainability ==

Like the notion of complexity itself, the definitions people use for sustainability vary with context. How can the sustainability of global human and ecological systems be measured? To start, it might help to examine ideas from physics and engineering that may shed some light on the larger issue of global sustainability: equilibria (static and dynamic), stability, and self organized criticality. What are necessary and sufficient conditions for a complex physical system to be sustainable, and can any of those conditions be extended to apply in a global context? In particular, how much of an unsustainable system's behavior can be explained by either its inability to react quickly enough (i.e. slow feedback) or by inappropriate reactions (i.e. insufficient or wrong responses)?

Although my primary interest in sustainability concerns energy supply and climate change, I would like to learn about and discuss some other global systems: water, biodiversity, the nitrogen cycle, etc. It would be interesting to identify commonalities and interactions between those systems and those of energy and climate.

At the summer school, I would like to learn how to better place my own materials and optics research into a larger context of technology development. Several recent papers on the dynamics of energy technology development by Santa Fe Institute researchers (e.g. [8]) piqued my interest in this topic. How do the dynamics of change in energy technologies compare to those for other technologies that affect sustainability?

== References ==

[1] J. Yoon, A. J. Baca, S.-I. Park, P. Elvikis, J. B. Geddes III, L. Li, R. H. Kim, J. Xiao, S. Wang, T-H. Kim, M. J. Motala, B. Y. Ahn, E. B. Duoss, J. A. Lewis, R. G. Nuzzo, P. M. Ferreira, Y. Huang, A. Rockett, and J. A. Rogers, Ultrathin silicon solar microcells for semitransparent, mechanically ﬂexible and microconcentrator module designs, Nature Mater., 7:907-915, 2008.

[2] A. Lakhtakia, ed., Selected Papers on Linear Optical Composite Materials, SPIE, Bellingham, WA, USA, 1996.

[3] R. M. Walser, Metamaterials: An introduction, in W. Weiglhofer and A. Lakhtakia, eds., Introduction to Complex Mediums for Optics and Electromagnetics. SPIE, Bellingham, WA, USA, 2003.

[4] J. B. Geddes III, E. C. Nelson, and P. V. Braun, Design of uniaxial metallodielectric metamaterials having large optical nonlinearities, APS March Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA, 10-14 Mar. 2008.

[5] Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee, U. S. Department of Energy, Directing matter and energy: Five challenges for science and the imagination, 2007.

[6] D. L. Marks, J. B. Geddes III, and S. A. Boppart, Molecular identiﬁcation by generating coherence between molecular normal modes using stimulated raman scattering, accepted by Opt. Lett., 10 Feb. 2009.

[7] J. B. Geddes III, D. L. Marks, and S. A. Boppart. Optical pulse shaping for selective excitation of coherent molecular vibrations by stimulated Raman scattering, Proc. SPIE 7183:718311, 2009.

[8] J. D. Farmer and J. Trancik, Dynamics of technological development in the energy sector, The London Accord, 1-24, 2007.

File:JoeGeddes.png

2009-05-14T02:07:36Z

JBGeddesIII: