Santa Fe Institute Events Wiki - User contributions [en]

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Blog

2012-06-29T05:40:33Z

Christa:

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

Use this page as an informal forum to share your opinion and discuss anything at CSSS'12.

Students are encouraged to share their observations, insights, and opinions about daily lecture content as well as extracurricular activities.

Post your own links to notes, interesting articles, and anything else you think might contribute to the program.

==Google Translate isn't there yet==

[[File:Bad_Translation.png]]

== On the physicists' approach to other disciplines ==

http://www.smbc-comics.com/comics/20120321.gif

== Experiment Sign-up ==

http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Experiment_sign-up

== Can one get a chaotic map with two disco balls? ==

And, if so, isn't it practically our duty to do so?

(There's a disco ball in the lecture hall.)

== Schooling interactions with non-square boundary ==
The Monterey Bay Aquarium has an [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZKxfvi9h0c [anchovy tank]] shaped like two nested sections of cones (you stand inside it). Boid-like behavior is pretty easy to see in the fish, particularly because the shape of the tank interferes with the school. I couldn't decide if the tank was actually inducing turbulence in the fish.

== Dynamical Systems: R and Python ==
I wrote some Python code for simulating deterministic dynamical systems and used it to play around with the Logistic map from yesterday's lectures. The Python class I wrote for simulating generic dynamical systems (admittedly only those with a single state variable!) can be found [https://sites.google.com/site/beyondmicrofoundationscoderepo/home/python/dynamics here] (I would have posted to the code to the wiki directly but apparently one cannot upload .py files). I have also written a [http://beyondmicrofoundations.blogspot.com/2012/06/monday-4-june-2012-at-2012-csss.html blog] post demonstrating some of the functionality of the Python code.

Also, there are several R packages that seem to implement the algorithms from the TISEAN program that we were introduced to yesterday. The packages are [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/RTisean/index.html RTisean], [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/tseriesChaos/index.html tseriesChaos], and [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/tsDyn/index.html tsDyn] and can be found on CRAN.

Enjoy,

D. Pugh

PS: I am very much a newbie to Python, and any suggestions on improving my coding are much appreciated!

I have written another blog [http://beyondmicrofoundations.blogspot.com/2012/06/5-6-june-2012-at-2012-csss.html post] and some more Python code for implementing parts of the TISEAN labs that we have been assigned. Code can be found here [https://sites.google.com/site/beyondmicrofoundationscoderepo/home/python/dynamics here]. Eventually, the code will contain solutions to the all of the labs and homework.

== Python wrapper for TISEAN ==

Thanks for sharing your python code David.

Incidentally there is also a Python wrapper for TISEAN available
[http://www.stud.fernuni-hagen.de/q4576411/andreas_2/computer/projekte/tisean.html here]. Not sure how good it is, but might be worth checking out.

Sanith

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Blog

2012-06-29T05:39:54Z

Christa:

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

Use this page as an informal forum to share your opinion and discuss anything at CSSS'12.

Students are encouraged to share their observations, insights, and opinions about daily lecture content as well as extracurricular activities.

Post your own links to notes, interesting articles, and anything else you think might contribute to the program.

==Google Translate isn't there yet==

[[Bad_Translation.png]]

== On the physicists' approach to other disciplines ==

http://www.smbc-comics.com/comics/20120321.gif

== Experiment Sign-up ==

http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Experiment_sign-up

== Can one get a chaotic map with two disco balls? ==

And, if so, isn't it practically our duty to do so?

(There's a disco ball in the lecture hall.)

== Schooling interactions with non-square boundary ==
The Monterey Bay Aquarium has an [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZKxfvi9h0c [anchovy tank]] shaped like two nested sections of cones (you stand inside it). Boid-like behavior is pretty easy to see in the fish, particularly because the shape of the tank interferes with the school. I couldn't decide if the tank was actually inducing turbulence in the fish.

== Dynamical Systems: R and Python ==
I wrote some Python code for simulating deterministic dynamical systems and used it to play around with the Logistic map from yesterday's lectures. The Python class I wrote for simulating generic dynamical systems (admittedly only those with a single state variable!) can be found [https://sites.google.com/site/beyondmicrofoundationscoderepo/home/python/dynamics here] (I would have posted to the code to the wiki directly but apparently one cannot upload .py files). I have also written a [http://beyondmicrofoundations.blogspot.com/2012/06/monday-4-june-2012-at-2012-csss.html blog] post demonstrating some of the functionality of the Python code.

Also, there are several R packages that seem to implement the algorithms from the TISEAN program that we were introduced to yesterday. The packages are [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/RTisean/index.html RTisean], [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/tseriesChaos/index.html tseriesChaos], and [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/tsDyn/index.html tsDyn] and can be found on CRAN.

Enjoy,

D. Pugh

PS: I am very much a newbie to Python, and any suggestions on improving my coding are much appreciated!

I have written another blog [http://beyondmicrofoundations.blogspot.com/2012/06/5-6-june-2012-at-2012-csss.html post] and some more Python code for implementing parts of the TISEAN labs that we have been assigned. Code can be found here [https://sites.google.com/site/beyondmicrofoundationscoderepo/home/python/dynamics here]. Eventually, the code will contain solutions to the all of the labs and homework.

== Python wrapper for TISEAN ==

Thanks for sharing your python code David.

Incidentally there is also a Python wrapper for TISEAN available
[http://www.stud.fernuni-hagen.de/q4576411/andreas_2/computer/projekte/tisean.html here]. Not sure how good it is, but might be worth checking out.

Sanith

File:Bad Translation.png

2012-06-29T05:38:42Z

Christa: Google Translate Fail

Google Translate Fail

File:Screen Shot 2012-06-28 at 11.05.06 PM.png

2012-06-29T05:37:48Z

Christa: Google Translate Fail

Google Translate Fail

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Project Presentations

2012-06-26T02:55:45Z

Christa: /* Changes in Social Network Structure in Response to Crisis: Using Twitter data to Explore the Effect of the Tōhoku Earthquake. */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

Use this space to post project presentations and outlines. Include group members, a brief outline, and your slides.

=== Simple variation of the logistic map as a model to invoke questions on cellular protein trafficking ===
(Sepehr Ehsani, http://arxiv.org/abs/1206.5557)

Many open problems in biology, as in the physical sciences, display nonlinear and 'chaotic' dynamics, which, to the extent possible, cannot be reasonably understood. Moreover, mathematical models which aim to predict/estimate unknown aspects of a biological system cannot provide more information about the set of biologically meaningful (e.g., 'hidden') states of the system than could be understood by the designer of the model ab initio. Here, the case is made for the utilization of such models to shift from a 'predictive' to a 'questioning' nature, and a simple natural-logarithm variation of the logistic polynomial map is presented that can invoke questions about protein trafficking in eukaryotic cells.

===Changes in Social Network Structure in Response to Crisis: Using Twitter data to Explore the Effect of the Tōhoku Earthquake.===

Christa Brelsford and Xin Lu

Abstract:
We use twitter data from 7 days before and after the Tōhoku Earthquake to explore how cooperation rates, social network structure and connectivity, and social network vulnerability changed in Japan in response to the disaster. An English language data set is collected for the same time period to use as a control. Data is collected for a period of 96 hours starting from March 4th 2011 2:46pm JST and for 96 hours beginning March 11th 2011 2:46 pm JST. The rate of cooperative behavior, measured by the occurrence of helping words in tweets increases slightly in the English dataset and by an order of magnitude in the Japanese dataset. A network analysis is also performed. Network edges are retweets and direct messages. In future work, we hope to explore whether problem solving capacity in a social system changes in response to crises, based on changes in the rate of cooperation and information transfer in a network.

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Project Presentations

2012-06-26T02:30:34Z

Christa:

Experiment sign-up

2012-06-18T16:13:25Z

Christa: /* Monday June 18 */

Hi! Please sign up for one slot below. The experiment will be held in the Senior Common Room (JP's office) next to the great hall. Please arrive on time!

- Katrien, Vanessa, Sandro, Cameron & Jasmeen

==Monday June 18==

Morning Break:

9.30-9.40: Ryan

9.40-9.50: Benji

9.50-10.00: Friederike

10.00-10.10: Oscar

10.10-10.20: Tom

10.20-10.30: Piotr

10.30-10.40: Laurent

Lunch Break:

12.05-12.15: Chloe

12.15-12.25: Andres

12.25-12.35: Xue

12.35-12.45: Oleksandr

12.55-1.05: Nick A

1.05-1.15: Fabio

1.15-1.25: Priya

Afternoon:

4.30-4.40: Matteo

4.40-4.50:Ben

4.50-5.00: Sarah

5.00-5.10: Charlie

5.10-5.20: Abby

5.20-5.30: Elena

5.30-5.40: Riccardo

5.40-5.50: [[JP]]!

5.50-6.00:

6.00-6.10:

6.10-6.20:

6.20-6.30:

6.30-6.40:

6.40-6.50:

6.50-7.00:Christa

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-After Hours

2012-06-16T04:53:11Z

Christa: /* Trip to Abiquiu */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

Use this space to organize your own after hours activities.

==Dancing at the Rouge Cat==

Some of us will be going dancing on Friday night at the [http://rougecat.com/ Rouge Cat] they have a downstairs disco floor and it's a whole lot of fun. JP and I will be leaving SJC parking circle around 10:00p.m. to head over there. For those who do not sign up for a car don't forget Friday and Saturday $5 cabs.

Car 1: Juniper's Car 

1.

2.

3.

4.

Car 2: JP's Car 

1.

2.

3.

4.

==Some Banjo fun out on the town==

My brother will be having a concert this Saturday June 16 at the Second Street Brewery (original location) from 6-9p.m. I will be at the parking circle at 6p.m. For those who do not sign up for a car don't forget Friday and Saturday $5 cabs.

[http://www.secondstreetbrewery.com/2012/05/todd-the-fox-9/ Todd and the Fox Venue Details]

[http://www.toddandthefox.com/fr_home.cfm To hear their music]

If anyone would like to join:

Car 1: Juniper's Car 

1. Katrien (not sure if we'll be back from the lake trip by 6pm. Somebody can take my place if they want.) back up: Georg Weber

2. Marque

3. Sarah

4. Marco

==Dancing==
The beginner tango classes tonight (Thursday, 14th June) are open to drop-ins, especially if we have lead-follow parity, but they're expensive for intro dance classes: $20 from 7:30 to 9. 
1. Chloe 
2. Vikram 
3. Aleksandra 

We'll share a cab from in front of the dining hall, leaving 7PM.

Other varieties --

There's a contra on the 23rd; swing dancing most Mondays; this is supposed to be a great tango town, and I'm looking for drop-in-friendly beginner classes...

[http://www.santafenewmexican.com/Sidebar/Dance_fever_in_Santa_Fe swing, salsa, tango]

[http://www.folkmads.org/may_jun_calendar12.html contras, here and ABQ]

We've heard great Appalachian-style folk musicians here already, but I haven't found a ceili or hoedown locally.

--Chloe

==Trip to Taos==

JP and Tom are going to go to Taos on Saturday 6/16. Sights to see will include the High Road to Taos, Taos Pueblo, the Taos Gorge, Taos Earthships, and the plenty of Taos Hippies.
 
Car 1: JP's Camry 

1.[[JP]] 
2.Nick G 
3.Piotr 
4.Matteo 
5.Vikram 
 

Car 2: Tom's Car 
1 Andres G. 
2 Miguel 
3 Riccardo 
4 Priya 

==Trip to Abiquiu==

We are organizing a trip to lake Abiquiu this weekend. ATTENTION ATTENTION! Drivers (Christa, Fabio, John, Tom and David) will meet at 8:30 tomorrow morning (Saturday), and will go with Christa to town to rent 4 cars. We'll pick the others up at 9:30. Those in Christas car, meet at 9am. See you tomorrow!

Fabio

Friederike

Elena

Mikkel

John

Nona

Abby

Marco

Aleksandra

Jasmeen

Dan

Sandro

Ian (if there is any room)

Vanessa (ditto)

Christa (my car seats 5 including me, but I want to stop by Los Alamos to pick up my dog on the way. That adds ~30 min to the drive. "Christa's Honda has manual transmission. do we need a second driver on the car who can drive a stick shift car?" "Yes"- Christa

1. Christa

2. Xue (though I'm also willing to be a driver if necessary)

3. Katrien

4. Jianfeng Xu

5. Xin

Tom

Nick A

==Bandelier Field Trip==

Bandelier Field Trip
Trip to Bandelier National Monument on Sat. June 9.
We might string a visit to the Valles Caldera and Bradbury Science Museum/Los Alamos in as well. If another group would like to stay around Bandelier, we can split up.

Head over to the [[Bandelier Trip 2012 | Bandelier Trip]] Page to sign up!

==Mafia==

[[JP]] is a huge fan of Mafia/Werewolf. Let's play a game sometime in the lower commons.

Let's meet Saturday evening at 8:00 in the lower commons for our first game.

- [[Ryan_James|Ryan]] is down for this.

- Jasmeen is also a big fan of Mafia.

- Ian has never played, but is interested

- Vikram is interested in learning the game.

- Tom F. would like to join and can also teach "The Resistance" a very similar game

- Katrien wants to play too

==FOOTBALL!==

Anyone up for a friendly game of soccer? We can check out equipment from the gym.

[Team: Continuous!] 
1. [[Piotr Milanowski|Piotr]] 
2. [[Marco Duenas|Marco]] 
3.[[Oleksandr Ivanov|Alex]] 
4. 
5. 
[Team: Discrete!] 
1. [[Fabio Cresto Aleina|Fabio]] 
2. [[Matteo Chinazzi|Matteo]] 
3.[[JP]] 
4. 
5.

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-After Hours

2012-06-15T03:42:35Z

Christa: /* Trip to Abiquiu */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

Use this space to organize your own after hours activities.

==Dancing at the Rouge Cat==

Some of us will be going dancing on Friday night at the [http://rougecat.com/ Rouge Cat] they have a downstairs disco floor and it's a whole lot of fun. JP and I will be leaving SJC parking circle around 10:00p.m. to head over there.

Car 1: Juniper's Car 

1.

2.

3.

4.

Car 2: JP's Car 

1.

2.

3.

4.

==Some Banjo fun out on the town==

My brother will be having a concert this Saturday June 16 at the Second Street Brewery (original location) from 6-9p.m. I will be at the parking circle at 6p.m.

[http://www.secondstreetbrewery.com/2012/05/todd-the-fox-9/ Todd and the Fox Venue Details]

[http://www.toddandthefox.com/fr_home.cfm To hear their music]

If anyone would like to join:

Car 1: Juniper's Car 

1. Katrien (not sure if we'll be back from the lake trip by 6pm. Somebody can take my place if they want.)

2. Marque

3. Sarah

4. Marco

==Dancing==
The beginner tango classes tonight (Thursday, 14th June) are open to drop-ins, especially if we have lead-follow parity, but they're expensive for intro dance classes: $20 from 7:30 to 9. 
1. Chloe 
2. Vikram 
3. Aleksandra 

We'll share a cab from in front of the dining hall, leaving 7PM.

Other varieties --

There's a contra on the 23rd; swing dancing most Mondays; this is supposed to be a great tango town, and I'm looking for drop-in-friendly beginner classes...

[http://www.santafenewmexican.com/Sidebar/Dance_fever_in_Santa_Fe swing, salsa, tango]

[http://www.folkmads.org/may_jun_calendar12.html contras, here and ABQ]

We've heard great Appalachian-style folk musicians here already, but I haven't found a ceili or hoedown locally.

--Chloe

==Trip to Taos==

JP and Tom are going to go to Taos on Saturday 6/16. Sights to see will include the High Road to Taos, Taos Pueblo, the Taos Gorge, Taos Earthships, and the plenty of Taos Hippies.
 
Car 1: JP's Camry 

1.[[JP]] 
2.Nick G 
3.Piotr 
4.Matteo 
5.Vikram 
 

Car 2: Tom's Car 
1 Andres G. 
2 Miguel 
3 Riccardo 
4 Priya 

==Trip to Abiquiu==

We are organizing a trip to lake Abiquiu this weekend. Google maps says it should take about 1:10 hour driving from Santa Fe. Who's interested? We'll have to rent cars to go there.

Fabio

Friederike

Elena

Mikkel

John

Nona

Abby

Marco

Aleksandra

Jasmeen

Dan

Christa (my car seats 5 including me, but I want to stop by Los Alamos to pick up my dog on the way. That adds ~30 min to the drive. "Christa's Honda has manual transmission. do we need a second driver on the car who can drive a stick shift car?" "Yes"- Christa

1. Christa

2. Xue (though I'm also willing to be a driver if necessary)

3. Katrien

4. Jianfeng Xu

5. Xin

Tom

Joanne

==Bandelier Field Trip==

Bandelier Field Trip
Trip to Bandelier National Monument on Sat. June 9.
We might string a visit to the Valles Caldera and Bradbury Science Museum/Los Alamos in as well. If another group would like to stay around Bandelier, we can split up.

Head over to the [[Bandelier Trip 2012 | Bandelier Trip]] Page to sign up!

==Mafia==

[[JP]] is a huge fan of Mafia/Werewolf. Let's play a game sometime in the lower commons.

Let's meet Saturday evening at 8:00 in the lower commons for our first game.

- [[Ryan_James|Ryan]] is down for this.

- Jasmeen is also a big fan of Mafia.

- Ian has never played, but is interested

- Vikram is interested in learning the game.

- Tom F. would like to join and can also teach "The Resistance" a very similar game

- Katrien wants to play too

==FOOTBALL!==

Anyone up for a friendly game of soccer? We can check out equipment from the gym.

[Team: Continuous!] 
1. [[Piotr Milanowski|Piotr]] 
2. [[Marco Duenas|Marco]] 
3.[[Oleksandr Ivanov|Alex]] 
4. 
5. 
[Team: Discrete!] 
1. [[Fabio Cresto Aleina|Fabio]] 
2. [[Matteo Chinazzi|Matteo]] 
3.[[JP]] 
4. 
5.

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-After Hours

2012-06-14T16:29:51Z

Christa: /* Trip to Abiquiu */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

Use this space to organize your own after hours activities.

==Some Banjo fun out on the town==

My brother will be having a concert this Saturday June 16 at the Second Street Brewery (original location) from 6-9p.m.

[http://www.secondstreetbrewery.com/2012/05/todd-the-fox-9/ Todd and the Fox Venue Details]

[http://www.toddandthefox.com/fr_home.cfm To hear their music]

If anyone would like to join:

Car 1: Juniper's Car 

1.

2.

3.

4.

==Dancing==
Of particular varieties --

There's a contra on the 23rd; swing dancing most Mondays; this is supposed to be a great tango town, and I'm looking for drop-in-friendly beginner classes...

[http://www.santafenewmexican.com/Sidebar/Dance_fever_in_Santa_Fe swing, salsa, tango]

[http://www.folkmads.org/may_jun_calendar12.html contras, here and ABQ]

We've heard great Appalachian-style folk musicians here already, but I haven't found a ceili or hoedown locally.

--Chloe

==Trip to Taos==

JP and Tom are going to go to Taos on Saturday 6/16. Sights to see will include the High Road to Taos, Taos Pueblo, the Taos Gorge, Taos Earthships, and the plenty of Taos Hippies.
 
Car 1: JP's Camry 

1.[[JP]] 
2.Nick G 
3.Piotr 
4. 
5. 
 

Car 2: Tom's Car 
1 Andres G. 
2 Miguel 
3 Riccardo 
4 

==Trip to Abiquiu==

We are organizing a trip to lake Abiquiu this weekend. Google maps says it should take about 1:10 hour driving from Santa Fe. Who's interested? We'll have to rent cars to go there.

Fabio

Friederike

Elena

Mikkel

John

Nona

Abby

Katrien

Christa (my car seats 5 including me, but I want to stop by Los Alamos to pick up my dog on the way. That adds ~30 min to the drive.

1. Christa

2.

3.

4.

5.

==Bandelier Field Trip==

Bandelier Field Trip
Trip to Bandelier National Monument on Sat. June 9.
We might string a visit to the Valles Caldera and Bradbury Science Museum/Los Alamos in as well. If another group would like to stay around Bandelier, we can split up.

Head over to the [[Bandelier Trip 2012 | Bandelier Trip]] Page to sign up!

==Mafia==

[[JP]] is a huge fan of Mafia/Werewolf. Let's play a game sometime in the lower commons.

Let's meet Saturday evening at 8:00 in the lower commons for our first game.

- [[Ryan_James|Ryan]] is down for this.

- Jasmeen is also a big fan of Mafia.

- Ian has never played, but is interested

- Vikram is interested in learning the game.

- Tom F. would like to join and can also teach "The Resistance" a very similar game

- Katrien wants to play too

==FOOTBALL!==

Anyone up for a friendly game of soccer? We can check out equipment from the gym.

[Team: Continuous!] 
1. [[Piotr Milanowski|Piotr]] 
2. [[Marco Duenas|Marco]] 
3.[[Oleksandr Ivanov|Alex]] 
4. 
5. 
[Team: Discrete!] 
1. [[Fabio Cresto Aleina|Fabio]] 
2. [[Matteo Chinazzi|Matteo]] 
3.[[JP]] 
4. 
5.

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-After Hours

2012-06-14T16:28:57Z

Christa: /* Trip to Abiquiu */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

Use this space to organize your own after hours activities.

==Some Banjo fun out on the town==

My brother will be having a concert this Saturday June 16 at the Second Street Brewery (original location) from 6-9p.m.

[http://www.secondstreetbrewery.com/2012/05/todd-the-fox-9/ Todd and the Fox Venue Details]

[http://www.toddandthefox.com/fr_home.cfm To hear their music]

If anyone would like to join:

Car 1: Juniper's Car 

1.

2.

3.

4.

==Dancing==
Of particular varieties --

There's a contra on the 23rd; swing dancing most Mondays; this is supposed to be a great tango town, and I'm looking for drop-in-friendly beginner classes...

[http://www.santafenewmexican.com/Sidebar/Dance_fever_in_Santa_Fe swing, salsa, tango]

[http://www.folkmads.org/may_jun_calendar12.html contras, here and ABQ]

We've heard great Appalachian-style folk musicians here already, but I haven't found a ceili or hoedown locally.

--Chloe

==Trip to Taos==

JP and Tom are going to go to Taos on Saturday 6/16. Sights to see will include the High Road to Taos, Taos Pueblo, the Taos Gorge, Taos Earthships, and the plenty of Taos Hippies.
 
Car 1: JP's Camry 

1.[[JP]] 
2.Nick G 
3.Piotr 
4. 
5. 
 

Car 2: Tom's Car 
1 Andres G. 
2 Miguel 
3 Riccardo 
4 

==Trip to Abiquiu==

We are organizing a trip to lake Abiquiu this weekend. Google maps says it should take about 1:10 hour driving from Santa Fe. Who's interested? We'll have to rent cars to go there.

Fabio

Friederike

Elena

Mikkel

John

Nona

Abby

Katrien

Christa (my car seats 5 including me, but I want to stop by Los Alamos to pick up my dog on the way. That adds ~30 min to the drive.
1. Christa
2.
3.
4.
5.

==Bandelier Field Trip==

Bandelier Field Trip
Trip to Bandelier National Monument on Sat. June 9.
We might string a visit to the Valles Caldera and Bradbury Science Museum/Los Alamos in as well. If another group would like to stay around Bandelier, we can split up.

Head over to the [[Bandelier Trip 2012 | Bandelier Trip]] Page to sign up!

==Mafia==

[[JP]] is a huge fan of Mafia/Werewolf. Let's play a game sometime in the lower commons.

Let's meet Saturday evening at 8:00 in the lower commons for our first game.

- [[Ryan_James|Ryan]] is down for this.

- Jasmeen is also a big fan of Mafia.

- Ian has never played, but is interested

- Vikram is interested in learning the game.

- Tom F. would like to join and can also teach "The Resistance" a very similar game

- Katrien wants to play too

==FOOTBALL!==

Anyone up for a friendly game of soccer? We can check out equipment from the gym.

[Team: Continuous!] 
1. [[Piotr Milanowski|Piotr]] 
2. [[Marco Duenas|Marco]] 
3.[[Oleksandr Ivanov|Alex]] 
4. 
5. 
[Team: Discrete!] 
1. [[Fabio Cresto Aleina|Fabio]] 
2. [[Matteo Chinazzi|Matteo]] 
3.[[JP]] 
4. 
5.

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Tutorials

2012-06-13T18:13:17Z

Christa: /* Computational Mechanics */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

CSSS participants come from a wide range of disciplines. Participants are encouraged to share their knowledge by organizing their own tutorials.

Also, please post requests for tutorials here.

==Python, Computational Mechanics, and Information Theory==

There has been interest in more discussion on a number of topics, and so i'm offering to have evening discussions on them. please sign up below so that i can get a feel for the number of people who would be attending. also, please put a preference for what day it should be.

===Python===
Sign up below if you'd like an introduction to basic python programming. Python is a general purpose, very flexible and useful programming language. It is used pretty extensively in scientific computing.

dan wu: wu12345@gmail.com Let me know when we're meeting
- Benji: bzusman@gmail.com 
-Keegan

-Christa (maybe- I'm competent at the very basics, but could still use some help)

===Information Theory===
Interested in turning your data into bits, or seeing how the bits over there are related to the bits over here? If so, sign up below. 
- Matteo 
- Benji: bzusman@gmail.com 
-Keegan

-Christa

===Computational Mechanics===
If you'd like to know more about epsilon machines, measures of complexity, how to go from a map to a machine, i'm happy to discuss it all. 
- Matteo 

Yes please! --Chloe 
-Keegan

-Christa

==Order Book Dynamics: Learn how to trade in 15min==

--I'm happy to repeat this -just get in touch with me.--

If you are curious about how stocks trade and want to try your luck, I'll
be going over some of the basics with a hands-on example.

Meet at 7.30pm in main lecture hall Thursday June 7th. Please make sure
to bring your laptop.

Sanith

==An easier way to get a bifurcation plot==

Hey guys
I have been working in the past in obtaining bifurcation plots for different physical systems. There's a better way to get these pictures instead of getting the evolution at every parameter value of interest. This is called ''numerical continuation'' and basically involves tracking a curve. I plan to give a informal talk on how to do this and maybe even a demo on applying this technique on 14th June at 6.30 pm. Do mail me if you are interested at '''iitm.priya@gmail.com''' or sign up below.
[[User:Priya|Priya]]

- [[Ryan James|Ryan]] is interested in this. 
- Riccardo is interested in this. 
- Vikram is interested in this. 
- Matteo is interested in this. 
- Hide is interested in this. 
- Katrien wants to hear more about this. 
- Cameron is interested in this and would like to see [http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/xpp/id433859546?mt=8 this] in action if anyone has an iPad. 
- Oscar is interested in this. 

==Using Tisean on R on OS X==
first install TISEAN, like you've done already. Make sure R is up to date (v 2.15).
you can try to install RTisean from CRAN
install.packages("RTisean"); library(RTisean); henon()
But me and Dave both got an error about some bad file name, something about con and something about a long path involving -Tmp-
Solution:
remove.packages("RTisean")
restart R
download this: http://cl.ly/0I0b2P2L311y1q0q0y0n
install it, it changes line 74 of nativeTISEAN.R which has some problems with file handling
If you are golden, then:
> henon()
V1 V2
[1,] -0.1232481 -1.030383

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Tutorials

2012-06-13T18:13:02Z

Christa: /* Information Theory */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

CSSS participants come from a wide range of disciplines. Participants are encouraged to share their knowledge by organizing their own tutorials.

Also, please post requests for tutorials here.

==Python, Computational Mechanics, and Information Theory==

There has been interest in more discussion on a number of topics, and so i'm offering to have evening discussions on them. please sign up below so that i can get a feel for the number of people who would be attending. also, please put a preference for what day it should be.

===Python===
Sign up below if you'd like an introduction to basic python programming. Python is a general purpose, very flexible and useful programming language. It is used pretty extensively in scientific computing.

dan wu: wu12345@gmail.com Let me know when we're meeting
- Benji: bzusman@gmail.com 
-Keegan

-Christa (maybe- I'm competent at the very basics, but could still use some help)

===Information Theory===
Interested in turning your data into bits, or seeing how the bits over there are related to the bits over here? If so, sign up below. 
- Matteo 
- Benji: bzusman@gmail.com 
-Keegan

-Christa

===Computational Mechanics===
If you'd like to know more about epsilon machines, measures of complexity, how to go from a map to a machine, i'm happy to discuss it all. 
- Matteo 

Yes please! --Chloe 
-Keegan

==Order Book Dynamics: Learn how to trade in 15min==

--I'm happy to repeat this -just get in touch with me.--

If you are curious about how stocks trade and want to try your luck, I'll
be going over some of the basics with a hands-on example.

Meet at 7.30pm in main lecture hall Thursday June 7th. Please make sure
to bring your laptop.

Sanith

==An easier way to get a bifurcation plot==

Hey guys
I have been working in the past in obtaining bifurcation plots for different physical systems. There's a better way to get these pictures instead of getting the evolution at every parameter value of interest. This is called ''numerical continuation'' and basically involves tracking a curve. I plan to give a informal talk on how to do this and maybe even a demo on applying this technique on 14th June at 6.30 pm. Do mail me if you are interested at '''iitm.priya@gmail.com''' or sign up below.
[[User:Priya|Priya]]

- [[Ryan James|Ryan]] is interested in this. 
- Riccardo is interested in this. 
- Vikram is interested in this. 
- Matteo is interested in this. 
- Hide is interested in this. 
- Katrien wants to hear more about this. 
- Cameron is interested in this and would like to see [http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/xpp/id433859546?mt=8 this] in action if anyone has an iPad. 
- Oscar is interested in this. 

==Using Tisean on R on OS X==
first install TISEAN, like you've done already. Make sure R is up to date (v 2.15).
you can try to install RTisean from CRAN
install.packages("RTisean"); library(RTisean); henon()
But me and Dave both got an error about some bad file name, something about con and something about a long path involving -Tmp-
Solution:
remove.packages("RTisean")
restart R
download this: http://cl.ly/0I0b2P2L311y1q0q0y0n
install it, it changes line 74 of nativeTISEAN.R which has some problems with file handling
If you are golden, then:
> henon()
V1 V2
[1,] -0.1232481 -1.030383

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Tutorials

2012-06-13T18:12:49Z

Christa: /* Python */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

CSSS participants come from a wide range of disciplines. Participants are encouraged to share their knowledge by organizing their own tutorials.

Also, please post requests for tutorials here.

==Python, Computational Mechanics, and Information Theory==

There has been interest in more discussion on a number of topics, and so i'm offering to have evening discussions on them. please sign up below so that i can get a feel for the number of people who would be attending. also, please put a preference for what day it should be.

===Python===
Sign up below if you'd like an introduction to basic python programming. Python is a general purpose, very flexible and useful programming language. It is used pretty extensively in scientific computing.

dan wu: wu12345@gmail.com Let me know when we're meeting
- Benji: bzusman@gmail.com 
-Keegan

-Christa (maybe- I'm competent at the very basics, but could still use some help)

===Information Theory===
Interested in turning your data into bits, or seeing how the bits over there are related to the bits over here? If so, sign up below. 
- Matteo 
- Benji: bzusman@gmail.com 
-Keegan

===Computational Mechanics===
If you'd like to know more about epsilon machines, measures of complexity, how to go from a map to a machine, i'm happy to discuss it all. 
- Matteo 

Yes please! --Chloe 
-Keegan

==Order Book Dynamics: Learn how to trade in 15min==

--I'm happy to repeat this -just get in touch with me.--

If you are curious about how stocks trade and want to try your luck, I'll
be going over some of the basics with a hands-on example.

Meet at 7.30pm in main lecture hall Thursday June 7th. Please make sure
to bring your laptop.

Sanith

==An easier way to get a bifurcation plot==

Hey guys
I have been working in the past in obtaining bifurcation plots for different physical systems. There's a better way to get these pictures instead of getting the evolution at every parameter value of interest. This is called ''numerical continuation'' and basically involves tracking a curve. I plan to give a informal talk on how to do this and maybe even a demo on applying this technique on 14th June at 6.30 pm. Do mail me if you are interested at '''iitm.priya@gmail.com''' or sign up below.
[[User:Priya|Priya]]

- [[Ryan James|Ryan]] is interested in this. 
- Riccardo is interested in this. 
- Vikram is interested in this. 
- Matteo is interested in this. 
- Hide is interested in this. 
- Katrien wants to hear more about this. 
- Cameron is interested in this and would like to see [http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/xpp/id433859546?mt=8 this] in action if anyone has an iPad. 
- Oscar is interested in this. 

==Using Tisean on R on OS X==
first install TISEAN, like you've done already. Make sure R is up to date (v 2.15).
you can try to install RTisean from CRAN
install.packages("RTisean"); library(RTisean); henon()
But me and Dave both got an error about some bad file name, something about con and something about a long path involving -Tmp-
Solution:
remove.packages("RTisean")
restart R
download this: http://cl.ly/0I0b2P2L311y1q0q0y0n
install it, it changes line 74 of nativeTISEAN.R which has some problems with file handling
If you are golden, then:
> henon()
V1 V2
[1,] -0.1232481 -1.030383

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Tutorials

2012-06-13T18:12:34Z

Christa: /* Python */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

CSSS participants come from a wide range of disciplines. Participants are encouraged to share their knowledge by organizing their own tutorials.

Also, please post requests for tutorials here.

==Python, Computational Mechanics, and Information Theory==

There has been interest in more discussion on a number of topics, and so i'm offering to have evening discussions on them. please sign up below so that i can get a feel for the number of people who would be attending. also, please put a preference for what day it should be.

===Python===
Sign up below if you'd like an introduction to basic python programming. Python is a general purpose, very flexible and useful programming language. It is used pretty extensively in scientific computing.

dan wu: wu12345@gmail.com Let me know when we're meeting
- Benji: bzusman@gmail.com 
-Keegan
-Christa (maybe- I'm competent at the very basics, but could still use some help)

===Information Theory===
Interested in turning your data into bits, or seeing how the bits over there are related to the bits over here? If so, sign up below. 
- Matteo 
- Benji: bzusman@gmail.com 
-Keegan

===Computational Mechanics===
If you'd like to know more about epsilon machines, measures of complexity, how to go from a map to a machine, i'm happy to discuss it all. 
- Matteo 

Yes please! --Chloe 
-Keegan

==Order Book Dynamics: Learn how to trade in 15min==

--I'm happy to repeat this -just get in touch with me.--

If you are curious about how stocks trade and want to try your luck, I'll
be going over some of the basics with a hands-on example.

Meet at 7.30pm in main lecture hall Thursday June 7th. Please make sure
to bring your laptop.

Sanith

==An easier way to get a bifurcation plot==

Hey guys
I have been working in the past in obtaining bifurcation plots for different physical systems. There's a better way to get these pictures instead of getting the evolution at every parameter value of interest. This is called ''numerical continuation'' and basically involves tracking a curve. I plan to give a informal talk on how to do this and maybe even a demo on applying this technique on 14th June at 6.30 pm. Do mail me if you are interested at '''iitm.priya@gmail.com''' or sign up below.
[[User:Priya|Priya]]

- [[Ryan James|Ryan]] is interested in this. 
- Riccardo is interested in this. 
- Vikram is interested in this. 
- Matteo is interested in this. 
- Hide is interested in this. 
- Katrien wants to hear more about this. 
- Cameron is interested in this and would like to see [http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/xpp/id433859546?mt=8 this] in action if anyone has an iPad. 
- Oscar is interested in this. 

==Using Tisean on R on OS X==
first install TISEAN, like you've done already. Make sure R is up to date (v 2.15).
you can try to install RTisean from CRAN
install.packages("RTisean"); library(RTisean); henon()
But me and Dave both got an error about some bad file name, something about con and something about a long path involving -Tmp-
Solution:
remove.packages("RTisean")
restart R
download this: http://cl.ly/0I0b2P2L311y1q0q0y0n
install it, it changes line 74 of nativeTISEAN.R which has some problems with file handling
If you are golden, then:
> henon()
V1 V2
[1,] -0.1232481 -1.030383

First cut ideas

2012-06-12T23:21:06Z

Christa: Created page with 'File:Urania.jpg File:SFI logo with transit2.jpg File:SSSSR.png File:rosslermountain.jpg File:Tshirt.smt.jpg'

[[File:Urania.jpg]]

[[File:SFI logo with transit2.jpg]]

[[File:SSSSR.png]]

[[File:rosslermountain.jpg]]

[[File:Tshirt.smt.jpg]]

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-TShirts

2012-06-12T23:19:26Z

Christa: /* 2012 CSSS T-Shirt Design Submissions */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

Every year we have a T-shirt design contest, where CSSS Students create designs (relevant to the summer school) and during the end of the second week we vote on the one we will print and distribute to the cohort. Please post your T-shirt design below. The design will be printed on a single colored T-shirt (keep in mind which color T-shirt you would like to print on while planning your design). The print that will go on the T-shirt is limited to a two color back and a one color front.

Have fun and be creative!

==2012 CSSS T-Shirt Design Submissions==

[[first cut ideas]]

[[File:Urania.jpg]]

Urania blowing seeds of complexity

This is a draft I prepared a late evening some time before the CSSS. I didn't know at that time that the dorms have muse names and that I'll end up in the Urania...

Urania was the muse of Astronomy and also the Muse of Mathematics. she was often depicted holding a globe in her hands. In this case the cubist face and hands of Urania are borrowed from Picasso and she holds a SFI globe/dandelion flower head, on which she blows in order to disperse the seeds of complexity.

In my view this would need some serious polishing and volunteers to do so are welcome! Feedbacks also!

Cheers, Nick Goudemand

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[File:SFI transit small.jpg]]

SFI transit: the next generation of innovation is coming!

One more design.

Cheers, Nick G

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[File:SFI transit small 2.jpg]]

SFI transit: the next generation of innovation is coming!

An alternative version of the SFI transit in front of apple design....thanks to Sander for the suggestion.

Nick G
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[File:SFI logo with transit2.jpg]]

Venus transit in front of SFI logo

another proposition: urania in the back and this logo with the Venus transit in the front of Tshirt.

Nick

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[File:T shirt.jpg]]

Crystals are a prime manifestation of complexity. The design (front and back) represents crystals grown in cell culture dishes as seen under the microscope. The picture on the right has been mapped on a canvas with polar coordinates to show more symmetrical structure and avoid having a beginning and an end. (One from Georg Weber)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Simple Systems Summer School (SSSS) Rejects

(from Charlie)

(not necessarily white; and not necessarily this font and logo)

[[File:SSSSR.png]]

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Black shirt:

Obviously I am very bad at photoshop, but I hope you get my idea. We can work on the final design with someone with experience in graphics design.

Also, I would like the SFI logo in the back of the shirt, small and up near the neck.

(from Miguel)

[[File:T-shirt.png]]

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

White shirt:

Also needs some refinement with the help of a graphic designer. And we have to narrow down the colors (I didn't know only two colors possible).

Maybe this picture can go in the back and the SFI logo in front in the middle of the chest?

(from Miguel)

[[File:Network-shirt.jpg]]

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rossler attractor mountains & sun (rough idea)

[[File:rosslermountain.jpg]]

-Jasmeen

(Maybe orange and pine-green trajectories in the mountains, orange for the sun? -Chloe)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another idea, which someone who knows NetLogo could help me make: a network of all the students in the summer school, connected via project links?? (or some other link?) (N.B. we can only use two colours, so can't have multi-coloured agents.)

-Jasmeen

----
Fractal tree and code

[[File:Fractal_and_code.png]]

-Mark and Nick

----
Mountains and cantor set

[[File:Mountains_and_Cantor_Set.png]]

And another - Sarah's idea.

-Mark

----

[[File:qihc.png]]

[[Cameron Ray Smith|Cameron]]

----

[[File:qihc_arrow.png]]

[[File:qihc-arrow.pdf]]

[[Cameron Ray Smith|Cameron]]

----

=== Complexity Triptych ===

[[File:Tshirt.smt.jpg]]

A triptych. Culture (Native American mural at Bandelier), modeling/mathematics (cellular automata from the Crutchfield lecture), and biology/nature (pigment patterning on Olivia porphyria).

I'd like a front breast-pocket style image of the SFI logo plus the complex systems summer school and year...

Could use some fine-tuning! Maybe grayscale, maybe a higher res snail shell... -- Sarah Tweedt

----

One more idea...a very messy doodle that would obviously need to be redone, but just putting it up since I haven't had time to make a nicer version yet. It's supposed to be the view from St. John's, made up of some sort of petroglyph-like complex system with the SFI logo as the sun.

[[File:smaller.jpg]]

-Jasmeen

----
Si Tang: Lorenz & Butterfly 
Front: 
[[File:front_STang.jpg|250px]] 
Back: 
[[File:back_STang2.jpg|500px]]

Bandelier Trip 2012

2012-06-06T23:11:04Z

Christa: /* Christa's Car: 4 (maybe 5) seats */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

Please sign up here so we know who's going. 
Also: If you have a car, please let us know. The more cars, the more people. 

We'll meet Saturday at 10:00am in the parking circle.

Please remember to bring a hat, sunscreen, water, hiking shoes, and anything else you'll need for a day out in the field.

==Cars:==

===Tom's Sedan: 4 seats===
1. [[Nicholas Allgaier]] 

2. Vikram Vijayaraghavan 

3. Katrien Beuls 

4. Riccardo Fusaroli 

===John Paul's Camry: 4 (maybe 5) seats===

1. [[John Paul]] 

2. [[Matteo Chinazzi]] 

3. [[Chloe Lewis]] 

4.

5.

===Juniper's Car: 4 (maybe 5) seats===

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

===[http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Christa_Brelsford Christa]'s Car: 4 (maybe 5) seats===

1. Christa

2.

3.

4.

5(middle seat in a 2 door civic).

===STILL NEEDS A SEAT!===
1.

2.

3.

Bandelier Trip 2012

2012-06-06T23:10:49Z

Christa: /* Christa's Car: 4 (maybe 5) seats */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

Please sign up here so we know who's going. 
Also: If you have a car, please let us know. The more cars, the more people. 

We'll meet Saturday at 10:00am in the parking circle.

Please remember to bring a hat, sunscreen, water, hiking shoes, and anything else you'll need for a day out in the field.

==Cars:==

===Tom's Sedan: 4 seats===
1. [[Nicholas Allgaier]] 

2. Vikram Vijayaraghavan 

3. Katrien Beuls 

4. Riccardo Fusaroli 

===John Paul's Camry: 4 (maybe 5) seats===

1. [[John Paul]] 

2. [[Matteo Chinazzi]] 

3.

4.

5.

===Juniper's Car: 4 (maybe 5) seats===

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

===[http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Christa_Brelsford Christa]'s Car: 4 (maybe 5) seats===

1.

2.

3.

4.

5(middle seat in a 2 door civic).

===STILL NEEDS A SEAT!===
1.

2.

3.

Bandelier Trip 2012

2012-06-06T23:09:40Z

Christa: /* Cars: */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

Please sign up here so we know who's going. 
Also: If you have a car, please let us know. The more cars, the more people. 

We'll meet Saturday at 10:00am in the parking circle.

Please remember to bring a hat, sunscreen, water, hiking shoes, and anything else you'll need for a day out in the field.

==Cars:==

===Tom's Sedan: 4 seats===
1. [[Nicholas Allgaier]] 

2. Vikram Vijayaraghavan 

3. Katrien Beuls 

4. Riccardo Fusaroli 

===John Paul's Camry: 4 (maybe 5) seats===

1. [[John Paul]] 

2. [[Matteo Chinazzi]] 

3.

4.

5.

===Juniper's Car: 4 (maybe 5) seats===

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

===Christa's Car: 4 (maybe 5) seats===

1.

2.

3.

4.

5(middle seat in a 2 door civic).

===STILL NEEDS A SEAT!===
1.

2.

3.

Alfred Hubler's Nonlinear Dynamics Lab 2012

2012-06-06T21:38:30Z

Christa: /* Friday, June 8 7:00am */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

==Thursday, June 7, 6:00pm==

1. Sarah Tweedt 
2. Georg F. Weber 
3. Georg M. Goerg 
4. Cameron Smith 
5. Mikkel Vestergaard 
6. Friederike Greb 
7. Fabio Cresto Aleina 
8. Benji zusman 
9. Elena del Val 
10.Riccardo Fusaroli 
11. Nick Allgaier 
12.John Long 
13. Sepehr Ehsani 
14. David Pugh 
15.Keegan Hines 
16.Sanith 

==Friday, June 8 7:00am==
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS AN EARLY MORNING CLASS! 
1. Matteo Chinazzi 
2. Nona Karalashvili 
3. Xin Lu 
4. Joanne Rodrigues 
5. Chloe Lewis 
6. Seth Frey 
7. Graham Sack 
8. Piotr Milanowski 
9. Andres Gomez-Lievano 
10.Ian Wood 
11.Gareth Haslam 
12.Christa Brelsford 
13. 
14. 
15. 

==Monday, June 11, 6:00pm==
1. Hidetoshi Inamine 
2. Dan Wu 
3. Xiaoli Dong 
4. Si Tang 
5. Abby Horn 
6. Xue Feng 
7. Priya Subramanian 
8. Oscar Patterson 
9. Vanessa Ferdinand 
10.Tom Fennewald 
11.Jianfeng Xu 
12.Nicolas Goudemand 
13.Katrien Beuls 
14.Charlie Brummitt 
15.Ben Althouse 

==Tuesday, June 12, 6:00pm==
1. Marco Duenas

2. Jasmeen Kanwal 
3. shawana Wilson 
4. Miguel Lurgi 
5.Vikram Vijayaraghavan 
6.Mark Longo 
7.Oleksandr Ivanov 
8.Jon Stoffel 
9. Daniel Strombom 
10. 
11. 
12. 
13. 
14. 
15.

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Projects & Working Groups

2012-06-05T19:30:16Z

Christa: /* "Small Steps and Big Ideas" Group */

{{Complex Systems Summer School 2012}}

==Project proposals==

=== Nonequilibrium game theory ===
My hope is to adapt some SFI-based models, by people like Crutchfield and Farmer, so that they will quantitatively or qualitatively reproduce features of real human data. Of course, that is very specific, and I'm up for all kinds of ideas in the areas of game learning, game dynamics, small group collective behavior, cognitive science, nonlinear time series, non-eq time series, etc., etc.

Meet me, Seth Frey, at dinner on Thursday and Friday.

=== Enzyme kinetics – Do enzymes just accelerate equilibrium or play an active role in chemical reactions? ===
Enzyme networks (e.g. glycolysis) and catalysts in complex mixtures (e.g. Belusov-Zhabotinski reaction) can profoundly influence the outcome of a chemical reaction system. What about a single enzyme? Biochemistry textbooks uniformly say that an enzyme accelerates a reaction without altering its outcome. Yet, the set of differential equations that generically describes enzyme catalysis has remarkable resemblance to the Roessler equations (a textbook example of a non-linear, complex system). With a fixed substrate input or a steady substrate flow, a single enzyme probably cannot affect the reaction outcome. However, sinusoidal or pulsating substrate input, substrate activation or product inhibition, coupling of two enzymes could turn the reaction pattern non-linear. For this project, the sets of equations to study are quite well established – they need to be analyzed. In contrast to some of the more ambitious ideas circulated, this task is exhaustively doable in less than four weeks.

I am Georg Weber. If you are interested in studying this problem, please find me on Tuesday over lunch or dinner (or talk to me at any other unstructured time).
=== Traffic pattern analysis - Can we estimate car velocity by only observing car counts? ===
==== Problem statement ====
Imagine you have a monitored highway section with a start and end point. At both points you count the number of cars that pass by. The question I'd like to answer / simulate / estimate is: can we make some inference about the velocity of cars although we only have their counts? This would be very useful from an engineering / economic perspective because it's much easier / cheaper to count cars instead of actually tracking them from A to B.
==== Ideas on how to approach this ====
I have some intuition about how to go about this, but these are purely statistical (think of it as birth and death process; or as particles in a system that have a certain lifetime - cars in the highway section are like particles in a system). I would like to see if using explicit physical modeling of motion and agent-based modeling of traffic flow could shed more light on this problem.

'''Update 06/05/12:''' Just today we saw ''Takens theorem'' about how we can infer a systems structure from only observing a subset of variables. Well, it seems like that's exactly what this project is about.

If you are interested let me know (me = [http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Georg_M_Goerg Georg M. Goerg]; email my_3_initials_in_lowercase@stat.cmu.edu). Let's say Wednesday for lunch (or any other time you see me around).

=== Cultural Evolution - General Meet-up ===
Attention anyone who is interested in cultural evolution or applying your models/methodologies to this fabulous topic!

Let's meet at 4:15 (June 5th) in the cafe during the first "Time to work on Projects" slot. A bunch of us coalesced there tonight and figured we should all properly meet up and then bud off into different projects. Please post your potential buds below:

=== Cultural Evolution - things that look like drift but aren't ===
Lots of cultural evolution looks like drift (Bently et al 2004 'Random drift and culture change"). But what social transmission or cognitive learning mechanisms are isomorphic to random sampling with replacement from cultural inputs? In biological evolution, drift serves as a null model of sorts - one that should be ruled out before you can claim that anything more interesting is happening. However, it's not clear what the "uninteresting" type of change is for things that replicate by passing through human cognition and human social systems - like culture does. Is there even a reasonable equivalent of drift in cultural transmission? How should we go about conceptualizing and modeling the evolutionary forces at play in culture?

One candidate for a drifty-lookin' human behavior is probability matching: when people reproduce similar distributions of variation to that which they've learned from. And probability matching is rampant in human behavior (from language learning, to decision making, and even at the neural level). But I think this is a clearly different process than drift, however it still may qualify under Bentley's vague criteria - we can test that out. And there have got to be more drift-esque processes, anyone have any ideas?

If you're interested in these issues or modeling evolution (of any type of system), please give me a shout!

Vanessa

vanferdi [at] gmail.com

==="Small Steps and Big Ideas" Group===

[http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Christa_Brelsford Christa] [http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Daniel_Wu Dan] [http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Xin_Lu Xin] and Tom spent a while talking after dinner about a bunch of big ideas. Some things we thought about were *big data type network problems, *integrating qualitative social information with models of physical systems, *using games to understand cooperation and decision making.

We'll meet at dinner at 5:30 today (Tuesday, June 5th) in the cafeteria.

=== 107 Proteins in 10-15 cubic meters ===
Cells rely on proteins to perform vital metabolic and signaling functions; however, it is unclear how proteins are successfully directed to their necessary cellular location(s) in a densely-packed macromolecular environment within the cytoplasm and on the cellular membrane in a short timescale (see for example [http://www.pnas.org/content/108/16/6438.full Weigel et al., PNAS 2011]). Using the cell as a manipulatable model of complexity, one could begin to define the parameters and questions, as they pertain to prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells. If interested, please drop me a line: Sepehr Ehsani; sepehr.ehsani[at]utoronto.ca.

=== Innovation and Technological Progress ===

I noticed that a number of people mentioned that they were interested in some way in relation to innovation. I was wondering if anyone was interested in a project looking at how particular technologies progress over time and whether charting the form of successful (and/or unsuccessful) previous technologies such as the transistor, fission reactor, mobile phone, etc. in terms of either price, efficiency, or some other variable may be useful in predicting whether a current technology such as solar PV, fuel cell, or something else is following a similar trajectory. Other possible ideas might be to look at using patent, publication, or collaboration network data to reveal certain features of innovation that are not captured by other statistics, particularly for technologies that have yet to reach the market. SFI Professor Doyne Farmer has looked at some of this already in 'The Role of Design Complexity in Technology Improvement', see link: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009arXiv0907.0036M

This could be a jumping off point for some ideas on data, methods, models etc. Just throwing the idea out there and it's welcome to completely change but if you're interested, message me (Gareth Haslam) haslam@ias.unu.edu or find me in class.

=== Space, Stochasticity, Stability; Speciation? ===

[http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Xue_Feng Xue], [http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Chloe_Lewis Chloe] and [http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Xiaoli_Dong Xiaoli]are all working in ecosystems that experience_ a lot of unpredictability in a limiting ecosystem variables (water and/or nutrients); we see patchiness in space and time in how organisms are arranged; and we have some ideas about how the stochasticity may cause the spatial arrangements. [http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Si_Tang Si] is working on the stability and robustness of ecosystems.

With enough time, this is likely to involve speciation either to express different strategies, or as a result of spatial separation.

Find any of us walking-around, or meet in the cafeteria at 4:15 June 5th.

=== Plasticity in Neural Networks ===
I've done some modeling which shows that the amount of genetic variation that accumulates at any particular metabolic gene (enzyme) in a population at any given time is a function of the network topology in which the gene is embedded, as well as the distance of the network output from an optimum. So, for instance, in a linear metabolic network, enzymes at the beginning of a pathway will tend to be more constrained (show less variation in the population) than at the end of the pathway. This makes sense given that any changes in those first genes would ripple through the system and have a greater relative effect than mutations in later genes. However, this is only true when a population is already close to an optimum. When far from an optimum, we see the exact opposite trend with more variation in the front of the pathway. This also makes sense - when far from a goal, taking bigger steps gives individuals a better chance of achieving higher fitness. The system as a whole then uses the different relative step sizes according to pathway position to "fine tune" its output.
I think these findings are quite general - at least the model we used was simple enough that it could apply to many different types of directional developmental processes. We can conceptualize these "genes" more generally as sequential steps in a developmental process with some arbitrary goal. These could be steps in a factory assembly line, major product revisions versus minor releases, or (and this is my favorite), neurons learning about their environment. I'm curious what would happen if we took a similar approach to model neural networks. Genetic variation is the raw material for evolution while neural plasticity is the raw material for learning. The question we would be trying to answer is where, within a neural network, would we expect the most plasticity given a particular network topology and distance form a learning goal.
Please contact me (Mark Longo) if this sounds interesting. I'll be available during unstructured time, or you can email mlongo@stanford.edu.
[http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Mark_D._Longo]

=== Robustness of complex networks ===
[[File:Zoo.png|thumb|Fig. 1. Zoo of complex networks (an example). Taken from Sol´e and Valverde, 2001.]]
==== Problem statement ====
Complex networks have various properties which can be measured in real networks (WWW, social networks, biological networks), e.g. degree distribution, modularity, hierarchy, assortativity etc. Robustness of complex networks is a big question, however only some progress have been done in this direction. For example, it was shown that the scale-free networks are much more topologically robust to random attacks than random networks. Many people claim that various characteristics of complex networks will influence the robustness interdependently. The question I am interested in is how?

==== Approach ====
The idea is to generate continuous topology space of various complex networks (networks with different modularity, degree distribution, hierarchy etc) and use it to measure their robustness (see Fig. 1). There are many approaches to measure the robustness of complex networks. For example we can remove edges of vertices of a complex network graph and look at the size of a giant cluster. We can discuss other possibilities.

If you are interested you can contact me directly or via my E-mail: krystoferivanov@gmail.com or via my [[Oleksandr Ivanov|discussion page in CSSS 2012 wiki]].

Christa Brelsford

2012-06-05T04:19:05Z

Christa:

[[Image:ChristaBrelsford.jpg]]

I am a Ph.D candidate in the [http://schoolofsustainability.asu.edu/ School of Sustainability] at [http://www.asu.edu Arizona State University]. I have an MA from the [http://www.columbia.edu/cu/climatesociety/ Climate and Society] program at Columbia University, and a BS in civil engineering, also from Columbia. I'm also a research assistant in the Energy and Infrastructure group at the [http://lanl.gov Los Alamos National Lab]. My dissertation research focuses on how water allocation institutions have and may change in response to increasing scarcity. My main case study uses the water system in Las Vegas Nevada as an example of apparently successful adaptation to binding water scarcity. Although we don't yet have tools to reliably predict human behavior, in this political context, the choices made by water policy decision makers have a governing influence on the system, and can't be ignored. I hope that the computational tools used in complex systems research will help to integrate the rich social data I've gathered with the precise hydraulic models of the Colorado river water system that already exist. My email is christa dot brelsford at asu dot edu.

I lost my right leg in the Haiti earthquake in January 2010, and was a minor celebrity for a few months. I continue to support the Haitian literacy program I had been working with, and run, bike, and rock climb in the rest of my spare time.

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Projects & Working Groups

2012-06-05T04:06:02Z

Christa: /* "Small Steps and Big Ideas" Group */

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Projects & Working Groups

2012-06-05T04:05:51Z

Christa: /* Project proposals */

Complex Systems Summer School 2012-Projects & Working Groups

2012-06-05T04:03:30Z

Christa: /* "Small Steps and Big Ideas" Group */

Christa Brelsford

2012-05-30T23:35:03Z

Christa:

[[Image:ChristaBrelsford.jpg]]

I am a Ph.D candidate in the [http://schoolofsustainability.asu.edu/ School of Sustainability] at [http://www.asu.edu Arizona State University]. I have an MA from the [http://www.columbia.edu/cu/climatesociety/ Climate and Society] program at Columbia University, and a BS in civil engineering, also from Columbia. I'm also a research assistant in the Energy and Infrastructure group at the [http://lanl.gov Los Alamos National Lab]. My dissertation research focuses on how water allocation institutions have and may change in response to increasing scarcity. My main case study uses the water system in Las Vegas Nevada as an example of apparently successful adaptation to binding water scarcity. Although we don't yet have tools to reliably predict human behavior, in this political context, the choices made by water policy decision makers have a governing influence on the system, and can't be ignored. I hope that the computational tools used in complex systems research will help to integrate the rich social data I've gathered with the precise hydraulic models of the Colorado river water system that already exist.

I lost my right leg in the Haiti earthquake in January 2010, and was a minor celebrity for a few months. I continue to support the Haitian literacy program I had been working with, and run, bike, and rock climb in the rest of my spare time.

Christa Brelsford

2012-05-30T03:55:19Z

Christa:

[[Image:ChristaBrelsford.jpg]]

I am a Ph.D candidate in the [http://schoolofsustainability.asu.edu/ School of Sustainability] at [http://www.asu.edu Arizona State University]. I have an MA from the [http://www.columbia.edu/cu/climatesociety/ Climate and Society] program at Columbia University, and a BS in civil engineering, also from Columbia. My dissertation research focuses on how water allocation institutions have and may change in response to increasing scarcity. My main case study uses the water system in Las Vegas Nevada as an example of apparently successful adaptation to binding water scarcity. Although we don't yet have tools to reliably predict human behavior, in this political context, the choices made by water policy decision makers have a governing influence on the system, and can't be ignored. I hope that the computational tools used in complex systems research will help to integrate the rich social data I've gathered with the precise hydraulic models of the Colorado river water system that already exist.

I lost my right leg in the Haiti earthquake in January 2010, and was a minor celebrity for a few months. I continue to support the Haitian literacy program I had been working with, and run, bike, and rock climb in the rest of my spare time.

Christa Brelsford

2012-05-30T03:38:13Z

Christa:

[[Image:ChristaBrelsford.jpg]]

Christa is a Ph.D. Candidate at [http://www.asu.edu Arizona State Universities] new [http://schoolofsustainability.asu.edu/ School of Sustainability]. SOS is an experiment in interdisciplinary graduate education, seeking to bring together multiple disciplines in order to create practical solutions to the worlds most pressing environmental, economic, and social problems. Christa's dissertation research focuses on how water allocation institutions change in response to increasing scarcity. She's using the desert southwest as a case study.

She recently finished the [http://www.columbia.edu/cu/climatesociety/ Climate and Society] masters degree at Columbia University, and has a BS in civil engineering, also from Columbia.

Christa lost her right leg in the Haiti earthquake in January 2010 but still continues to run, bike, and rock climb.

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-22T21:08:27Z

Christa: /* A Possible Integrating Outline */

== Modeling Cluster ==

Gina La Cerva, Joe Geddes, Regina Clewlow, Ha Nguyen, Christa Brelsford, Adam Wolf

==== Motivating Questions ====

13) How can we better quantify uncertainty when we are in uncharted territory of the climate system (where change is happening faster and involving feedbacks we don't yet understand?

14) How do we develop useful integrated models? Are there feedback mechanisms that we don't understand?

27) What methods can be used and developed to quantify interactions between previously developed models of human, physical, and economic systems?

(I think this following question should be taken up by the ecosystem services group:)

31) What technologies or tools are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

==== Overall Objectives for Modeling ====

We agree that human-climate interactions are the most critical area of climate science modeling, because these have feedbacks which can either mitigate warming or amplify the consequences of warming. Furthermore these interactions are largely unexplored in a coupled system where feedbacks can be directly evaluated.

Several key human-climate interactions:

+ market dynamics that can lead to decarbonized energy technology implementation. tipping points. policy. investment.

- human migration

- increased energy use in adaptation, e.g. use of air conditioning

- infectious disease

==== Modeling Objectives ====

Several uses for models were identified, including

- policy evaluation (sensitivity analysis)

- validation

- forecasting and uncertainty analysis

==== Types of Models ====

- agent based modeling of markets, investment, policy

- agent based modeling of control systems

- scaling approaches to evaluate model realism --> implies data against which models can be evaluated

- Crude Look at the Whole (CLAW)

==== Notes on Discussion (21 July 2009) ====

- normative models vs descriptive models

- macroeconomists largely ignored financial system; recent collapse in finance led to cascading collapse throughout macroeconomy (Ref: Economist article)

- importance of getting assumptions right from the beginning; possibility of using agent based models to avoid having to make as many assumptions

- water rights in Arizona (can't trade them; use or lose); interactions between humans, political system, natural environment

- can use REEDS model to some extent to figure out how to flip grid to include larger amount of renewables

- stranded assets (investments made under old regulatory regime become much less valuable under new rules)

- lock in effects are very imporant; how to get out is hard problem ("buying out" actors who would otherwise have lots of stranded assets)

- how to make a financial product that acts as a catalyst to reduce economic barriers to change (help overcome lock in?

- corn ethanol, Mississippi river as examples of lock in

- What do we really mean by a "regime" of behavior in one of these extremely complex models? How can we recognize a regime when we see one (either in the computer model or when observing the system?

- lock in is related to resilience (ie lock in state is resilient to change)

- models of the political process (eg game theory [see paper on model of climate negotiations], Sam Bowles at SFI)

- validate agent based models using game theory results in simplified situations

- skepticism about game theory

- What can be done (or can be expected to be done) with agent based models that could not be done with other modeling approaches?

--- can it predict a transition path to a new state (eg involving more renewables, etc) that traditional (general equilibrium) economic models don't show

--- need for self reinforcing shift

--- a agent-based models simply change one set of assumptions (about set behavior of agents) for other set (have to argue that these assumptions are better in some way)

- in previous changes (industrial revolution, agriculture) arose spontaneously (or did they)

--- "The Prize" (gov'ts fought to create oil industry?); however once oil industry got going, it was self reinforcing

--- but is the transition to post-fossil fuel economy different (because problem is global warming, not running out of fossil fuels, at least not yet)

- how to get {renewable energy, efficiency, other sustainable practices} to point where they are self reinforcing?; what policies, technologies, cultural change, etc would be needed?

- NREL is interested in incorporating behavioral economics and possibly agent-based models

- Can a few big players shift the system (colloquially, a few more WalMarts)?

- stability of the grid when nondispatchable resources are added in large quantites

- utilities are key agents (large, reactionary)

- cash for clunkers (buying old cars to get them off the road)
--- but what about eg relatively new coal plants in bad site for sequestration that still need to be decommissioned to reach 350 ppm?

- need list of ways people have modeled economy and climate interactions in the past (ie proto lit review, covering neoclassical approaches, etc)

==== A Possible Integrating Outline ====

Framing question:

What tools can complexity science offer sustainability? and what tools can be developed

-Technology

-Social inputs to climate change

-mechanisms of impact

-integrative

-anything else?

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-22T20:55:05Z

Christa: /* A Possible Integrating Outline */

== Modeling Cluster ==

Gina La Cerva, Joe Geddes, Regina Clewlow, Ha Nguyen, Christa Brelsford, Adam Wolf

==== Motivating Questions ====

13) How can we better quantify uncertainty when we are in uncharted territory of the climate system (where change is happening faster and involving feedbacks we don't yet understand?

14) How do we develop useful integrated models? Are there feedback mechanisms that we don't understand?

27) What methods can be used and developed to quantify interactions between previously developed models of human, physical, and economic systems?

(I think this following question should be taken up by the ecosystem services group:)

31) What technologies or tools are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

==== Overall Objectives for Modeling ====

We agree that human-climate interactions are the most critical area of climate science modeling, because these have feedbacks which can either mitigate warming or amplify the consequences of warming. Furthermore these interactions are largely unexplored in a coupled system where feedbacks can be directly evaluated.

Several key human-climate interactions:

+ market dynamics that can lead to decarbonized energy technology implementation. tipping points. policy. investment.

- human migration

- increased energy use in adaptation, e.g. use of air conditioning

- infectious disease

==== Modeling Objectives ====

Several uses for models were identified, including

- policy evaluation (sensitivity analysis)

- validation

- forecasting and uncertainty analysis

==== Types of Models ====

- agent based modeling of markets, investment, policy

- agent based modeling of control systems

- scaling approaches to evaluate model realism --> implies data against which models can be evaluated

- Crude Look at the Whole (CLAW)

==== Notes on Discussion (21 July 2009) ====

- normative models vs descriptive models

- macroeconomists largely ignored financial system; recent collapse in finance led to cascading collapse throughout macroeconomy (Ref: Economist article)

- importance of getting assumptions right from the beginning; possibility of using agent based models to avoid having to make as many assumptions

- water rights in Arizona (can't trade them; use or lose); interactions between humans, political system, natural environment

- can use REEDS model to some extent to figure out how to flip grid to include larger amount of renewables

- stranded assets (investments made under old regulatory regime become much less valuable under new rules)

- lock in effects are very imporant; how to get out is hard problem ("buying out" actors who would otherwise have lots of stranded assets)

- how to make a financial product that acts as a catalyst to reduce economic barriers to change (help overcome lock in?

- corn ethanol, Mississippi river as examples of lock in

- What do we really mean by a "regime" of behavior in one of these extremely complex models? How can we recognize a regime when we see one (either in the computer model or when observing the system?

- lock in is related to resilience (ie lock in state is resilient to change)

- models of the political process (eg game theory [see paper on model of climate negotiations], Sam Bowles at SFI)

- validate agent based models using game theory results in simplified situations

- skepticism about game theory

- What can be done (or can be expected to be done) with agent based models that could not be done with other modeling approaches?

--- can it predict a transition path to a new state (eg involving more renewables, etc) that traditional (general equilibrium) economic models don't show

--- need for self reinforcing shift

--- a agent-based models simply change one set of assumptions (about set behavior of agents) for other set (have to argue that these assumptions are better in some way)

- in previous changes (industrial revolution, agriculture) arose spontaneously (or did they)

--- "The Prize" (gov'ts fought to create oil industry?); however once oil industry got going, it was self reinforcing

--- but is the transition to post-fossil fuel economy different (because problem is global warming, not running out of fossil fuels, at least not yet)

- how to get {renewable energy, efficiency, other sustainable practices} to point where they are self reinforcing?; what policies, technologies, cultural change, etc would be needed?

- NREL is interested in incorporating behavioral economics and possibly agent-based models

- Can a few big players shift the system (colloquially, a few more WalMarts)?

- stability of the grid when nondispatchable resources are added in large quantites

- utilities are key agents (large, reactionary)

- cash for clunkers (buying old cars to get them off the road)
--- but what about eg relatively new coal plants in bad site for sequestration that still need to be decommissioned to reach 350 ppm?

- need list of ways people have modeled economy and climate interactions in the past (ie proto lit review, covering neoclassical approaches, etc)

==== A Possible Integrating Outline ====

Framing question:

What tools can complexity science offer sustainability?

-Technology

-Social inputs to climate change

-mechanisms of impact

-integrative

-anything else?

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-22T20:53:42Z

Christa: /* A Possible Integrating Outline */

== Modeling Cluster ==

Gina La Cerva, Joe Geddes, Regina Clewlow, Ha Nguyen, Christa Brelsford, Adam Wolf

==== Motivating Questions ====

13) How can we better quantify uncertainty when we are in uncharted territory of the climate system (where change is happening faster and involving feedbacks we don't yet understand?

14) How do we develop useful integrated models? Are there feedback mechanisms that we don't understand?

27) What methods can be used and developed to quantify interactions between previously developed models of human, physical, and economic systems?

(I think this following question should be taken up by the ecosystem services group:)

31) What technologies or tools are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

==== Overall Objectives for Modeling ====

We agree that human-climate interactions are the most critical area of climate science modeling, because these have feedbacks which can either mitigate warming or amplify the consequences of warming. Furthermore these interactions are largely unexplored in a coupled system where feedbacks can be directly evaluated.

Several key human-climate interactions:

+ market dynamics that can lead to decarbonized energy technology implementation. tipping points. policy. investment.

- human migration

- increased energy use in adaptation, e.g. use of air conditioning

- infectious disease

==== Modeling Objectives ====

Several uses for models were identified, including

- policy evaluation (sensitivity analysis)

- validation

- forecasting and uncertainty analysis

==== Types of Models ====

- agent based modeling of markets, investment, policy

- agent based modeling of control systems

- scaling approaches to evaluate model realism --> implies data against which models can be evaluated

- Crude Look at the Whole (CLAW)

==== Notes on Discussion (21 July 2009) ====

- normative models vs descriptive models

- macroeconomists largely ignored financial system; recent collapse in finance led to cascading collapse throughout macroeconomy (Ref: Economist article)

- importance of getting assumptions right from the beginning; possibility of using agent based models to avoid having to make as many assumptions

- water rights in Arizona (can't trade them; use or lose); interactions between humans, political system, natural environment

- can use REEDS model to some extent to figure out how to flip grid to include larger amount of renewables

- stranded assets (investments made under old regulatory regime become much less valuable under new rules)

- lock in effects are very imporant; how to get out is hard problem ("buying out" actors who would otherwise have lots of stranded assets)

- how to make a financial product that acts as a catalyst to reduce economic barriers to change (help overcome lock in?

- corn ethanol, Mississippi river as examples of lock in

- What do we really mean by a "regime" of behavior in one of these extremely complex models? How can we recognize a regime when we see one (either in the computer model or when observing the system?

- lock in is related to resilience (ie lock in state is resilient to change)

- models of the political process (eg game theory [see paper on model of climate negotiations], Sam Bowles at SFI)

- validate agent based models using game theory results in simplified situations

- skepticism about game theory

- What can be done (or can be expected to be done) with agent based models that could not be done with other modeling approaches?

--- can it predict a transition path to a new state (eg involving more renewables, etc) that traditional (general equilibrium) economic models don't show

--- need for self reinforcing shift

--- a agent-based models simply change one set of assumptions (about set behavior of agents) for other set (have to argue that these assumptions are better in some way)

- in previous changes (industrial revolution, agriculture) arose spontaneously (or did they)

--- "The Prize" (gov'ts fought to create oil industry?); however once oil industry got going, it was self reinforcing

--- but is the transition to post-fossil fuel economy different (because problem is global warming, not running out of fossil fuels, at least not yet)

- how to get {renewable energy, efficiency, other sustainable practices} to point where they are self reinforcing?; what policies, technologies, cultural change, etc would be needed?

- NREL is interested in incorporating behavioral economics and possibly agent-based models

- Can a few big players shift the system (colloquially, a few more WalMarts)?

- stability of the grid when nondispatchable resources are added in large quantites

- utilities are key agents (large, reactionary)

- cash for clunkers (buying old cars to get them off the road)
--- but what about eg relatively new coal plants in bad site for sequestration that still need to be decommissioned to reach 350 ppm?

- need list of ways people have modeled economy and climate interactions in the past (ie proto lit review, covering neoclassical approaches, etc)

==== A Possible Integrating Outline ====

Framing question:

What tools can complexity science offer sustainability?

-Technology

-Social inputs to climate change

-mechanisms of impact

-anything else?

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-22T20:53:25Z

Christa: /* A possible outline */

== Modeling Cluster ==

Gina La Cerva, Joe Geddes, Regina Clewlow, Ha Nguyen, Christa Brelsford, Adam Wolf

==== Motivating Questions ====

13) How can we better quantify uncertainty when we are in uncharted territory of the climate system (where change is happening faster and involving feedbacks we don't yet understand?

14) How do we develop useful integrated models? Are there feedback mechanisms that we don't understand?

27) What methods can be used and developed to quantify interactions between previously developed models of human, physical, and economic systems?

(I think this following question should be taken up by the ecosystem services group:)

31) What technologies or tools are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

==== Overall Objectives for Modeling ====

We agree that human-climate interactions are the most critical area of climate science modeling, because these have feedbacks which can either mitigate warming or amplify the consequences of warming. Furthermore these interactions are largely unexplored in a coupled system where feedbacks can be directly evaluated.

Several key human-climate interactions:

+ market dynamics that can lead to decarbonized energy technology implementation. tipping points. policy. investment.

- human migration

- increased energy use in adaptation, e.g. use of air conditioning

- infectious disease

==== Modeling Objectives ====

Several uses for models were identified, including

- policy evaluation (sensitivity analysis)

- validation

- forecasting and uncertainty analysis

==== Types of Models ====

- agent based modeling of markets, investment, policy

- agent based modeling of control systems

- scaling approaches to evaluate model realism --> implies data against which models can be evaluated

- Crude Look at the Whole (CLAW)

==== Notes on Discussion (21 July 2009) ====

- normative models vs descriptive models

- macroeconomists largely ignored financial system; recent collapse in finance led to cascading collapse throughout macroeconomy (Ref: Economist article)

- importance of getting assumptions right from the beginning; possibility of using agent based models to avoid having to make as many assumptions

- water rights in Arizona (can't trade them; use or lose); interactions between humans, political system, natural environment

- can use REEDS model to some extent to figure out how to flip grid to include larger amount of renewables

- stranded assets (investments made under old regulatory regime become much less valuable under new rules)

- lock in effects are very imporant; how to get out is hard problem ("buying out" actors who would otherwise have lots of stranded assets)

- how to make a financial product that acts as a catalyst to reduce economic barriers to change (help overcome lock in?

- corn ethanol, Mississippi river as examples of lock in

- What do we really mean by a "regime" of behavior in one of these extremely complex models? How can we recognize a regime when we see one (either in the computer model or when observing the system?

- lock in is related to resilience (ie lock in state is resilient to change)

- models of the political process (eg game theory [see paper on model of climate negotiations], Sam Bowles at SFI)

- validate agent based models using game theory results in simplified situations

- skepticism about game theory

- What can be done (or can be expected to be done) with agent based models that could not be done with other modeling approaches?

--- can it predict a transition path to a new state (eg involving more renewables, etc) that traditional (general equilibrium) economic models don't show

--- need for self reinforcing shift

--- a agent-based models simply change one set of assumptions (about set behavior of agents) for other set (have to argue that these assumptions are better in some way)

- in previous changes (industrial revolution, agriculture) arose spontaneously (or did they)

--- "The Prize" (gov'ts fought to create oil industry?); however once oil industry got going, it was self reinforcing

--- but is the transition to post-fossil fuel economy different (because problem is global warming, not running out of fossil fuels, at least not yet)

- how to get {renewable energy, efficiency, other sustainable practices} to point where they are self reinforcing?; what policies, technologies, cultural change, etc would be needed?

- NREL is interested in incorporating behavioral economics and possibly agent-based models

- Can a few big players shift the system (colloquially, a few more WalMarts)?

- stability of the grid when nondispatchable resources are added in large quantites

- utilities are key agents (large, reactionary)

- cash for clunkers (buying old cars to get them off the road)
--- but what about eg relatively new coal plants in bad site for sequestration that still need to be decommissioned to reach 350 ppm?

- need list of ways people have modeled economy and climate interactions in the past (ie proto lit review, covering neoclassical approaches, etc)

==== A Possible Integrating Outline ====

Framing question:

What tools can complexity science offer sustainability?

-Technology
-Social inputs to climate change
-mechanisms of impact
-anything else?

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-22T20:48:24Z

Christa: /* Modeling Cluster */

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Complexity-Science

2009-07-21T20:36:03Z

Christa: /* Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability */

==Complexity Science Approaches to Problems of Sustainability==

How to couple together models of social, economic, and technical systems?

Complexity applied to urbanization could be very helpful since urbanization is so important for sustainability.

if global systems succumb to a catastrophic event, they were (by definition) not sustainable.

Various authors have listed catastrophic events that threaten civilization (Weizman, Diamond, Rees).

An important element of sustainability is to avoid catastrophic events.

SOS definition of resilience: Resilience is the amount of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same region of state space, dominated by the same set of processes.

in 70s or 80s there was a field called catastrophe theory (trying to predict large changes in physical and other types of systems), but it is now often referred to as a failure --- why? (ie we don't want to repeat mistaken research programs of the past and so we should know why they failed, or if abandoning them was unjustified)

limits of knowledge
-- what we don't know vs what we can't know
-- understand limits of predictive power of models

some aspects of complexity:
-- emergence
-- sensitive dependence on initial and boundary conditions
-- steady state but also novel behavior
-- scaling laws and self organized criticality
-- perpetual novelty
-- can have underlying simplicity (but may not!)

complexity and technology topics
-- studying development of more sustainable technologies and their learning curves; helping to create good portfolios of promising technologies
-- studying how technologies are adopted (or not)
-- many materials that could be useful for renewable energy and/or efficiency and/or catalysis, etc. exhibit complex systems behavior in their own right
-- better understand complex technologies and technical systems to optimize them for much better efficiency; figure out ways to at least semi automate radical resource efficency in computer aided design

does sustainability require that the rich help the poor?

The first step in saving the world is keeping it from falling apart. In order to keep the world from falling apart, we have to know how it might fail. One method of increasing our understanding of global resilience is to provide methods to identify and quantify the interactions between systems dominated by human choices and behavior, systems dominated by economic decisions and institutions, and physical systems like ecosystems, human constructed infrastructure, and geophysical systems.

Quantitative models exist in each of the three spheres of sustainability, but few methods exist for linking these highly interactive spheres. Systems with behavior highly dependent on human choice can be modeled assuming the absence of a human presence. This provides useful insight into the behavior of the system, but if it is highly managed or feedbacks exist, a combined model of human choice and the complete system may provide better insight. I propose developing and codifying methods to model and validate interactions between each of the three major spheres.

The clearest closed system that involves humans is the entire earth, and all the physical, social and economic processes that it contains. A closed system is one in which external driving forces are not affected by the state of the system. Our recent economic troubles have shown that human economic institutions are global in scope, and each national economy is driven in part by the state of others. The driving forces behind the physical climate can also only be modeled on a global scale. Therefore, any human system smaller than the globe will not be a truly closed system, and it may not be possible to define if it is in a sustainable state or not. A closed system that never experiences failure is sustainable. The threshold that defines failure depends on ethical choices, but could range from complete global ecosystem collapse where few humans survive and no modern institutions do, to any period of rapid and unexpected change in human institutions. Phrased differently, a system that is always resilient is sustainable. Resilience is defined as the magnitude of disturbance a system can withstand and remain in the same state space, governed by the same set of processes (). Some resilience thresholds induce a shift from a sustainable state, with others may not. Careful examination of the major system domains and their interactions on a global scale may help us understand the essential characteristics of a sustainable system.

However, a model that links complex and interacting systems on a global scale risks becoming too general and dependent on assumptions to provide useful information. Therefore, as an intermediate step, regional scale models that primarily consider interactions between two of the three major domains can be built. Insights from regional models may scale to the global system.

On a regional scale, one method for increasing understanding of the interactions between human and physical systems uses agent based modeling. I propose developing an agent based model of dams on the Colorado river basin. The agents follow hierarchical rule structure that mimics the existing legal hierarchy of water rights, in-stream flow requirements and other regulations from EIS’s, and optimization of water releases to maximize the value of hydroelectric power generation. This model will then be layered on top of a 2 dimensional hydrological model of the river basin created using SWWM5. Water speed, temperature and quality will be included. Once the tool is developed, trade-offs between hydroelectric power generation and ecosystem health, biodiversity, and endangered species survival can be quantified. Additionally, when the model includes rigorous water demand models, the first area of failure under different policy and climate scenarios can be modeled. The model can be validated against historical data and also by layering the ABM part on IEISS.

CSSS 2009 Santa Fe-Modeling-Cluster

2009-07-21T20:18:20Z

Christa: /* Modeling Cluster */

==Modeling Cluster==

Gina La Cerva, Joe Geddes, Regina Clewlow, Ha Nguyen, Christa Brelsford, Adam Wolf

==== Motivating questions:====
13) How can we better quantify uncertainty when we are in uncharted territory of the climate system (where change is happening faster and involving feedbacks we don't yet understand?

14) How do we develop useful integrated models? Are there feedback mechanisms that we don't understand?

27) What methods can be used and developed to quantify interactions between previously developed models of human, physical, and economic systems?

(I think this following question should be taken up by the ecosystem services group:)

31) What technologies or tools are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

==== Overall objectives to modeling ====

We agree that human-climate interactions are the most critical area of climate science modeling, because these have feedbacks which can either mitigate warming or amplify the consequences of warming. Furthermore these interactions are largely unexplored in a coupled system where feedbacks can be directly evaluated.

Several key human-climate interactions:

+ market dynamics that can lead to decarbonized energy technology implementation. tipping points. policy. investment.

- human migration

- increased energy use in adaptation, e.g. use of air conditioning

- infectious disease

==== Modeling Objectives ====

Several uses for models were identified, including

- policy evaluation (sensitivity analysis)

- validation

- forecasting and uncertainty analysis

==== Types of Models ====

- agent based modeling of markets, investment, policy

- agent based modeling of control systems

- scaling approaches to evaluate model realism --> implies data against which models can be evaluated

Summer School on Global Sustainability-Working Group Wiki Page

2009-07-18T13:56:48Z

Christa: /* Mitigation and Adaptation Continued */

Please refer to the [http://www.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/CSSS_2009_Santa_Fe-Projects_%26_Working_Groups Complex Systems Summer School] groups page to get an idea of self organization and working groups.

=='''Cluster Research Ideas'''==

===Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity, Food and Ag===

1) How can the global food and land-use systems decrease their negative environmental impact and adapt to climate change while mitigating its effects?

2) Expanding and '''standardizing''' measurement, monitoring, and verification of global ecosystem services.

3) How can we sustainably use ocean and freshwater systems (drinking water, fishing, aquaculture, recreation, and biodiversity)?

===Developing World===

4) How to foster innovation/knowledge sharing within the developing world in regards to improving livelihoods & ensuring sustainability? (e.g. Indeigenous Knowledge, solutions appropriate for agricultural lifestyles)?

5) How would technological transfer from developed to developing nations (or vice versa) for climate change adaptation and mitigation actually occur? (e.g. acocuntability, $$, open source software, govt to govt, private to private, incentives for innovation)

6) How do we get to an equitable distribution of responsibility for climate change mitigation & adaptation around the globe? (e.g. emission reduction burdens, adaptation funds, ranking vulnerability)

===Policy/Regulatory Environment===

7) How can complexity science support streamlining development and adoption of technologies and practices?

8) How to effectively translate research into policy, practice and intervention (with diverse collaborators, partnerships, initiatives, etc.)

9) How do we transform policies affecting global sustainability (path dependence, complex adaptive policy, integration, scalability, etc.)

10) What types of policies can promote sustainability and how to meaningfully enforce them? (individual initiatives, systems approaches, international agreements)

===Decision Sciences===

11) How do we understand/how do we change/what are
the rules of the game, especially as applied to:
economic growth theory
agricultural/eco systems
social systems?

12) What drives societal transformation (in terms of values, norms, practices, and livelihoods strategies) & how can complex system science help to productively shed light on those processes?

===Climate Change===

13) How can we better quantify uncertainty when we are in uncharted territory of the climate system (where change is happening faster and involving feedbacks we don't yet understand?

14) How do we develop useful integrated models? Are there feedback mechanisms that we don't understand?

15) How does climate change affect uncertainties and challenges in modeling de-carbonization & the energy system?

===Human Well-Being, Sociology, Advocacy===

16) How can we best change consumption and political behaviors?

17) How can population growth be part of the dialogue?

18) What techniques & strategies from past social movements can be used to initiate and sustain new social movements?

19) How do cultural conceptions of nature influence sustainability? What kind of educational strategies are needed to foster values that facilitate sustainability?

20) How can we anticipate & mitigate resource-based human conflicts?

===Mitigation and Adaptation===

21) What technologies are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

22) What is our vision for a sustainable future?

23) Which low-carbon or carbon neutral technologies or practices are needed, or need to be developed for a sustainable future?

===Complexity===

24) To what degree does heterogeneity facilitate the adoption & spread of sustainable technologies or practices?

25) Are entropy and sustainability opposing or supporting forces? Under what conditions?

26) Can ideas from complexity be used to improve integrated design practices for new technology (and retrofit technology?)

27) What methods can be used and developed to quantify interactions between previously developed models of human, physical, and economic systems?

===Mitigation and Adaptation Continued===

28) How will we address projected phosphorus shortages? (2020-2050)

29) How are adaptation ideas distributed or shared? (Technology/Idea Transfer)

30) Can localization become an adaptive strategy?

31) What technologies or tools are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

===Proposals for Combination===

#2 and 21
#7 and 26 and 4
#12 and 18
#15 and 23 and 6
#8 and 9 and 16
#1 and 3
#1 and 27

==Project Groups==

Summer School on Global Sustainability-Working Group Wiki Page

2009-07-18T13:56:09Z

Christa: /* Complexity */

Please refer to the [http://www.santafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/CSSS_2009_Santa_Fe-Projects_%26_Working_Groups Complex Systems Summer School] groups page to get an idea of self organization and working groups.

=='''Cluster Research Ideas'''==

===Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity, Food and Ag===

1) How can the global food and land-use systems decrease their negative environmental impact and adapt to climate change while mitigating its effects?

2) Expanding and '''standardizing''' measurement, monitoring, and verification of global ecosystem services.

3) How can we sustainably use ocean and freshwater systems (drinking water, fishing, aquaculture, recreation, and biodiversity)?

===Developing World===

4) How to foster innovation/knowledge sharing within the developing world in regards to improving livelihoods & ensuring sustainability? (e.g. Indeigenous Knowledge, solutions appropriate for agricultural lifestyles)?

5) How would technological transfer from developed to developing nations (or vice versa) for climate change adaptation and mitigation actually occur? (e.g. acocuntability, $$, open source software, govt to govt, private to private, incentives for innovation)

6) How do we get to an equitable distribution of responsibility for climate change mitigation & adaptation around the globe? (e.g. emission reduction burdens, adaptation funds, ranking vulnerability)

===Policy/Regulatory Environment===

7) How can complexity science support streamlining development and adoption of technologies and practices?

8) How to effectively translate research into policy, practice and intervention (with diverse collaborators, partnerships, initiatives, etc.)

9) How do we transform policies affecting global sustainability (path dependence, complex adaptive policy, integration, scalability, etc.)

10) What types of policies can promote sustainability and how to meaningfully enforce them? (individual initiatives, systems approaches, international agreements)

===Decision Sciences===

11) How do we understand/how do we change/what are
the rules of the game, especially as applied to:
economic growth theory
agricultural/eco systems
social systems?

12) What drives societal transformation (in terms of values, norms, practices, and livelihoods strategies) & how can complex system science help to productively shed light on those processes?

===Climate Change===

13) How can we better quantify uncertainty when we are in uncharted territory of the climate system (where change is happening faster and involving feedbacks we don't yet understand?

14) How do we develop useful integrated models? Are there feedback mechanisms that we don't understand?

15) How does climate change affect uncertainties and challenges in modeling de-carbonization & the energy system?

===Human Well-Being, Sociology, Advocacy===

16) How can we best change consumption and political behaviors?

17) How can population growth be part of the dialogue?

18) What techniques & strategies from past social movements can be used to initiate and sustain new social movements?

19) How do cultural conceptions of nature influence sustainability? What kind of educational strategies are needed to foster values that facilitate sustainability?

20) How can we anticipate & mitigate resource-based human conflicts?

===Mitigation and Adaptation===

21) What technologies are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

22) What is our vision for a sustainable future?

23) Which low-carbon or carbon neutral technologies or practices are needed, or need to be developed for a sustainable future?

===Complexity===

24) To what degree does heterogeneity facilitate the adoption & spread of sustainable technologies or practices?

25) Are entropy and sustainability opposing or supporting forces? Under what conditions?

26) Can ideas from complexity be used to improve integrated design practices for new technology (and retrofit technology?)

27) What methods can be used and developed to quantify interactions between previously developed models of human, physical, and economic systems?

===Mitigation and Adaptation Continued===

27) How will we address projected phosphorus shortages? (2020-2050)

28) How are adaptation ideas distributed or shared? (Technology/Idea Transfer)

29) Can localization become an adaptive strategy?

30) What technologies or tools are still needed to evaluate environmental impacts?

===Proposals for Combination===

#2 and 21
#7 and 26 and 4
#12 and 18
#15 and 23 and 6
#8 and 9 and 16
#1 and 3
#1 and 27

==Project Groups==

Christa Brelsford

2009-05-20T16:20:38Z

Christa:

[[Image:ChristaBrelsford.jpg]]

Christa is a first-year Ph.D. student at [http://www.asu.edu Arizona State Universities] new [http://schoolofsustainability.asu.edu/ School of Sustainability]. SOS is an experiment in interdisciplinary graduate education, seeking to bring together multiple disciplines in order to create practical solutions to the worlds most pressing environmental, economic, and social problems. Christa's research will focus on the effects of climate change on agricultural risk levels in the developing world.

She recently finished the [http://www.columbia.edu/cu/climatesociety/ Climate and Society] masters degree at Columbia University, and has a BS in civil engineering, also from Columbia.

Born and raised in rural Alaska, Christa has now lived in the most extreme temperature and city sizes that can be found in the US. In her spare time, Christa rock climbs and is beginning to take up biking.

File:ChristaBrelsford.jpg

2009-05-20T16:19:31Z

Christa: uploaded a new version of "Image:ChristaBrelsford.jpg"

File:ChristaBrelsford.jpg

2009-05-20T16:16:18Z

Christa:

Christa Brelsford

2009-05-20T16:10:56Z

Christa:

Christa is a first-year Ph.D. student at [http://www.asu.edu Arizona State Universities] new [http://schoolofsustainability.asu.edu/ School of Sustainability]. SOS is an experiment in interdisciplinary graduate education, seeking to bring together multiple disciplines in order to create practical solutions to the worlds most pressing environmental, economic, and social problems. Christa's research will focus on the effects of climate change on agricultural risk levels in the developing world.

She recently finished the [http://www.columbia.edu/cu/climatesociety/ Climate and Society] masters degree at Columbia University, and has a BS in civil engineering, also from Columbia.

Born and raised in rural Alaska, Christa has now lived in the most extreme temperature and city sizes that can be found in the US. In her spare time, Christa rock climbs and is beginning to take up biking.

Christa Brelsford

2009-05-20T16:04:53Z

Christa: New page: Christa is a first-year Ph.D. student at Arizona State Universities new School of Sustainability. SOS is an experiment in interdisciplinary graduate education, seeking to bring together ...

Christa is a first-year Ph.D. student at Arizona State Universities new School of Sustainability. SOS is an experiment in interdisciplinary graduate education, seeking to bring together multiple disciplines in order to create practical solutions to the worlds most pressing environmental, economic, and social problems. Christa's research will focus on the effects of climate change on agricultural risk levels in the developing world.

She recently finished the Climate and Society masters degree at Columbia University, and has a BS in civil engineering, also from Columbia.

Born and raised in rural Alaska, Christa has now lived in the most extreme temperature and city sizes that can be found in the US. In her spare time, Christa rock climbs and is beginning to take up biking.